Article
citation information:
Nitsenko,
V., Vlasenko, T., Stakhov, A., Golubkova,
I., Gerasymchuk, N., Petrychenko, O. Threats to shipping in
the Black Sea and their global impact. Scientific
Journal of Silesian University of Technology. Series Transport. 2025, 128, 145-162. ISSN: 0209-3324. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20858/sjsutst.2025.128.9
Vitalii
NITSENKO[1], Tetiana VLASENKO[2], Arseny STAKHOV[3], Iryna GOLUBKOVA[4], Nataliia GERASYMCHUK[5], Oleksandr PETRYCHENKO[6]
THREATS TO
SHIPPING IN THE BLACK SEA
AND THEIR GLOBAL IMPACT
Summary. The article examines
the threats to cargo transportation in the Black Sea and the directions of
their impact on the maritime transport industry both regionally and globally.
The assessment of the military component of these threats is important for all
aspects of the transport fleet, primarily because the significance of military
threats is greater than that of other risks to maritime transport. In
particular, it is indicated that the consequences of threats to the merchant
fleet due to hostilities in the Black Sea are not only sunken and damaged
vessels, people lost, but also dynamic changes in freight rates and even an
increase in the average service life of merchant vessels of the warring
parties. This increases the risks of accidents and has already led to
significant threats to marine biocenosis, which contradicts the principles of
green shipping. The above principles, as proven by research, are also
contradicted by the trend of reducing the development of alternative fuel
infrastructure, which leads to a reduction in the possibilities of its further
use by merchant fleet vessels. The importance of introducing fragmented
logistics schemes, primarily expanding the use of the ro-ro network, for
reducing the impact of threats is noted. The study confirms that the threat of
sea pollution with a significant uncertain component is also represented by the
systematic illegal transshipment of oil products in the open sea to avoid
sanctions. At the same time, the study indicates that the significant
uncertainty of wartime threats complicates the relevant assessment and
forecasting of the parameters of all aspects of maritime transportation. It is
also noted that the impact of the uncertainty of military risks limits the use
of recursive vector autoregression for forecasting the freight rate. Therefore,
a mathematical model is proposed to separate uncertainty from the impact of
other factors that are considered as "colored"
noise. It is also proposed to use an interval approach with an uneven
distribution of the resulting function over the area of existence with its
subsequent refinement by parameter estimation methods with other metrics. The
mathematical model allows taking into account the different orientations of the
impact vectors of uncertain factors, which increases the relevance of the
forecast. The increasing relevance of maritime transport forecasts will
contribute to risk prevention measures and resource provision to mitigate their
consequences. Taking into account the uncertain component of risks is important
not only in wartime, since this component is also present in maritime transport
risks in peacetime. This will ensure the appropriate level of sustainability of
cargo transportation by sea, reasonably shape the directions for the
introduction of digital, green technologies, methods for optimizing logistics
routes, etc.
Keywords: maritime transport, shipping sustainability, uncertainty of threats,
maritime logistics, global crises, digitalization, green shipping, alternative
fuels
1. INTRODUCTION
Maritime
transport needs sustainable development to effectively ensure the functioning
of the global market. To do this, it must resolve the dichotomy of increasing
environmental sustainability and economic efficiency. However, the
implementation of decarbonization, digitalization, logistics optimization, and
other technological innovations as areas of "green shipping" is
becoming a tangible obstacle not only to economic factors, but also to local
and global crises, the cause of which, in particular, is military action
(Kotenko et al., 2022).
The
growth of risks of maritime transportation, even in individual water areas, has
a negative impact not only on the operational efficiency of transport companies
but also on the global maritime transport industry as a whole due to changes in
logistics chains, significant port congestion, problems with crew formation,
etc. The operational efficiency of the merchant fleet is reduced by long-term
delays of vessels, a significant level of insurance rates, a high probability
of compensation for injured crew members, etc.
In
areas of increased risk, due to the threat of destruction, it is not even
economically feasible to use more expensive vessels using modern technologies;
in transportation logistics, shorter routes should not be used, but safe routes
should be chosen. The risks of pollution of the sea and air environment in such
conditions increase. Therefore, the task of taking risks into account is acute
for all aspects of maritime transportation. But taking risks into account in
war conditions is a difficult task because they not only have a different
mathematical nature: deterministic-stochastic, and fuzzy-and differ in the
presence of a significant component that has signs of uncertainty.
It
is the problem of the uncertain impact of war that causes the difficulties of
formalizing risks and therefore negatively affects the assessment of the entire
set of factors of maritime transportation, which prevents the implementation of
measures to neutralize threats. Therefore, its solution is the path to
sustainable shipping.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
Management
of economic processes, primarily in the field of maritime transport, which is
characterized by a relatively significant level of risk, is aimed at ensuring
sustainability in all aspects: economic (Fialkovska,
2025), environmental, both in terms of water pollution (Ravikumar, 2025) and
coastal pollution (Shovkun-Zablotska et al., 2024),
logistical, both from the point of view of coordinating the supply chain (Lopes
et al., 2025), and from the point of view of reducing logistical risks (Mazur
et al., 2022), technological (Oral et al., 2023), etc.
In
particular, social sustainability, which should be aimed at the formation of
corporate social responsibility, the protection of not only ship crews, but
also workers of land-based maritime infrastructure, and more broadly - the
population of coastal regions, also does not bypass the need to assess the
risks to human life and health as a consequence of the activities of the
maritime transport industry (Oloruntobi et al.,
2023).
Various
tools are used for this. Tools for digitalization of both the production and
business activities of transport companies (Kapidani
et al., 2020), as well as the digitalization of the entire maritime transport
complex (Golubkova et al., 2021), including ports
(Jović et al., 2022), are used. Integrated approaches that strengthen various
components of sustainability, in particular, green shipping, both in a global
aspect (Chen et al., 2024) and in view of the automation of technological
processes of vessels (Mba, 2024) are implemented. But in times of crisis,
especially a crisis of a military nature, the definition of sustainable
maritime practices and operational efficiency of shipping companies need to be
revised, which is often ignored by scientists (Mba, 2024).
At
the same time, researchers, when analyzing the risks
of sustainability of maritime transport, do not even take into account
uncertain threats (Nitsenko et al., 2024; Lam, 2025).
But these threats significantly limit even the use of modern digital means of
supporting maritime transport. This applies, for example, to the Fuzzy TOPSIS
(Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method,
which is based on fuzzy variables and is used to optimize the cost of bunkering
(Chrysafis, et al., 2022), since the Fuzzy TOPSIS
method is not suitable for use in the case of uncertain risks. Also not
relevant in wartime is the fuzzy DEMATEL () approach aimed at assessing the
risks of accidents with damage to ship structures, since military threats can
be not only fuzzy. Researchers using the DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and
Evaluation Laboratory) approach often do not even include military risks in the
list of possible causes of ship damage (Kuzu, 2021).
The
use of some models that are considered to take into account uncertain risks,
such as Weibull models and long-normal models, is not always justified in cases
of military risks (Ching et al., 2022). In particular, because these models
rely on data series, statistical methods, Markov-Monte Carlo chains. But a
significant part of military threats is not described by statistical methods.
Even in thorough reviews of methods for predicting maritime transport risks,
there is no mention of the specifics of assessing military threats (Huang et
al., 2023; Nitsenko et al., 2025). And these threats
have a wide range of impacts. Thus, toxins as a result of the bombing of ships
and port infrastructure spread not only in the Black and Azov Seas, but also in
the Baltic Sea (Greenpeace in Central and Eastern Europe, 2024), because part
of the catchment basins of Ukrainian rivers connects with the water area close
to the ports of the Baltic Sea and through ballast water can reach all ports in
the world (Rata et al. 2018), which limits the possibilities of green shipping
even in water areas remote from the combat zone.
At
the same time, even recognizing the significant impact of the war in the Black
Sea basin on the global maritime transportation market, in particular LNG
(Liquefied Natural Gas) transportation, scientists focus on the problems of
maritime logistics, the extension of transport routes, bypassing the problem of
assessing the impact of military threats (Ke et al. 2024). From the point of
view of maritime logistics, this is, to a certain extent, substantiated, since
even in wartime conditions it did not stop the introduction of online logistics
platforms in the ports of warring countries by companies such as China Merchant
Port Group, Compagnie Maritime d'Affrètement
Compagnie Générale Maritime Group and blockchain platforms (Yarovyi,
2024). Some researchers even point out that military risks make transportation
in the zone of military conflict attractive, due to the increase in freight
rates, bypassing the assessment of the threat of destruction of the vessel
(Fasii, 2023). This indicates the different direction of the vectors of
influence of military threat factors, which complicates the integral assessment
of their impact.
Determining
and formalizing the impact of military risks is a difficult task. This is
evidenced, for example, by the fact that these risks are often combined with
other types of risks, in particular geopolitical ones (Rogozińska, 2023), or,
as it was done in the study of logistics processes by Ponomarenko et al. (2023)
– with “the influence of external factors that lead to instability”. Failure to
take into account the unpredictable effects of war reduces the relevance of
using proven methods for assessing the risks of maritime transportation such
as: Fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and TOPSIS (Gulen et al. 2025),
Fuzzy cognitive mapping (Soner, 2025), MIMAH (Methodology for the
Identification of Major Accident Hazards) and Fuzzy Bayesian networks methodologies
(Ay Cenk, 2025), Bayesian network model (Park Sang-A, 2025), etc. In general,
this indicates the feasibility of expanding and radically revising the approach
called the integrated hybrid method (Yorulmaz et al. 2025).
A
review of the literature indicates a significant impact of war on all aspects
of maritime transportation, including not only economic and military-strategic
(Bazaluk, 2017), but also environmental, logistical,
and other aspects of activities related to the transportation of goods by sea.
At the same time, the influencing factors are parameters with different
metrics, including uncertain ones.
The
predominant impact of threats caused by war increases the need to take into
account uncertain factors, which will make it possible to predict dangers with
an appropriate level of relevance. This will increase the ability of both
shipowners and seaport administrations to prevent threats and mitigate their
consequences. Taking into account uncertain factors is also important for the
merchant fleet to acquire the necessary level of sustainability in the post-war
period, to properly shape development directions in the introduction of
digital, green technologies, methods for optimizing logistics routes, etc.
3. MATERIALS AND METHODS
The
study uses mathematical methods to analyze both
statistical data and uncertain factors characteristic of large-scale war
conditions. The proposed mathematical approach is based on the thesis that the
weight of military risks outweighs the total weight of other threats to cargo
transportation in water areas where hostilities are taking place. The first
step of mathematical modeling is to separate
uncertainty from the influence of other factors that are considered as “colored” information noise. A feature of “colored” noise, as it is known, is the possibility of its
description by deterministic, stochastic, or fuzzy methods (Kotenko et al.
2023).
It
is proposed to consider the uncertain influence of a factor or group of factors
as a numerical value belonging to the interval of possible values. Uncertainty
is considered as the approximation of the selected mathematical models with a
set of resulting values 
and 
to the model
with a set of resulting values 
, which are
accepted as relevant. The model with a set of resulting values is selected to confirm the forecast for the
past period of time and is refined with the acquisition of information about
each subsequent period of time. For this, the probability of coincidence of the
resulting values 
, 
with is calculated as:
(1)
(2)
where 
, 
, 
are uncertainty functions, 
, 
, 
are value ranges , and .
The
uncertainty functions are found using the operator transformation method, and,
accordingly, the application of integral operators:
(3)
where 
is an array of input data that varies in the
interval 
, 
; 
are generalized mathematical operations on the
array of input data (nonlinear single or binary, integro-differential). This
procedure makes it possible to separate the influence of uncertain risks from
the influence of deterministic, stochastic, and fuzzy factors.
Further,
from a number of mathematical models, two are selected, with maximum values 
and 
. Moreover 
. That is, the
value ranges 
and 
in the multidimensional value space are
limited by the surfaces of the maximum, defined by the data range , and the
minimum, defined by the data range , values of
the region of existence of the uncertain component of the factor 
. Then, since
the type of uncertainty (stochastic or fuzzy) may be unknown a priori, the
operator transformation method is applied, and the relevant set of resulting
values 
is identified with the risk component 
, which is
determined by uncertainty and is calculated as:
(4)
where 
is the probability of intersection of the
maxima of the functions
and 
,
and the
interval values of this risk are calculated accordingly, as:
(5)
(6)
where 
, 
are the average values of the corresponding
probabilities.
Accordingly,
deterministic, stochastic, and fuzzy risk components are determined using
established methods, and their weight coefficients in the integral risk are
determined using the method proposed in the article by Kotenko et al. (2023).
Since, as noted above, the weight of military risks outweighs the total weight
of other threats to cargo transportation, these threats allow us to adjust the
model with a set of resulting values in the intervals of the maximum () and minimum
(
) values of .
Also,
the vector approach allows us to take into account the different directions of
the vectors of influence of uncertain factors, which will allow us to more
accurately indicate the surfaces of the maximum, determined by the data area , and the
minimum, determined by the data area , values of
the area of existence of the uncertain factor .
Graphically,
this result in a three-dimensional projection using the example of calculating
the cargo turnover of seaports of Ukraine, is interpreted as shown in Fig. 1.
Comparison
with forecasts of other researchers (Zaborskyi et
al., 2025), who use static methods, in particular the ARIMA method
(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, which does not take into account
uncertain factors), indicates a significant discrepancy with the presented data
(Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. The
result of the forecast of cargo turnover of seaports of Ukraine
in conditions of uncertain military risks in the Black Sea area
Source:
developed by the author
In
the calculation, the data array 
was used as the information from the State
Enterprise Sea Ports Administration of Ukraine (2023) and the State Enterprise
Sea Ports Administration of Ukraine (2024).
Graphically,
the models with the resulting values , and 
are combined in Figure 2, where the solid line
shows the data of past periods, the dotted lines represent the data of and , and the
dashed line shows the probable forecast.
Fig. 2. Cargo
turnover of sea ports of Ukraine in 2023-2025
Source:
developed by the author using data from
the State Enterprise SeaPorts Administration of
Ukraine (2023, 2024)
The
application of a statistical model and a forecasting model under uncertainty to
estimate the service life of tankers in the global transportation market (Fig.
3) indicates an increase in this indicator due, in particular, to the rapid
increase in the fleet of outdated Russian tankers for transshipment of
petroleum products, which is also the reason for the lack of change in this
trend in subsequent periods of time.
Fig.
3 and Fig. 4 show the equations of polynomials that approximate the forecast
results using the developed methodology.
A
significant factor in this influence was the fact that in 2022-2023 the world
fleet lost 63 ships, and 68 fleet units were destroyed during hostilities in
the Black Sea during this period, including merchant ships, including tankers,
under the flags of the Marshall Islands, Moldova, Panama, Dominica, Tanzania,
and Ukraine. Also in 2024, 300 port infrastructure facilities, 177 vehicles,
and 22 merchant ships under the flags of countries not participating in the
conflict were damaged as a result of missile strikes.
This
is one of the restraining factors in the renewal of the tanker fleet. In
previous periods of time, shipping companies tried to get rid of tankers with
an operating life of more than 15 years. But the tankers that Russia purchases
or leases during this period of time to circumvent sanctions have already been
in operation, sometimes for more than 26 years, which affects the global
performance of the tanker fleet.
Fig. 3.
Average tanker service life in the global maritime transportation market, years
Source:
developed by the author based on data UNCTAD (2024)
A
sign of the global crisis in maritime transport due to hostilities in the Black
Sea basin is also the overloading of EU ports located in other seas due to the
global change in maritime logistics. The global change in maritime logistics
has affected not only the transportation of oil products but also other types
of cargo. Even container transportation has been affected, although the
participants in the conflict do not have a significant share in this type of
cargo. But these countries supply metals to the global market, so their
shortage leads to changes in container production volumes, which also creates
uncertainty in the global market.
The
application of a statistical model and a forecasting model under uncertainty to
forecast the average service life of Ukrainian merchant vessels (Fig. 4) shows
identical results - with a significant risk of losing vessels due to
hostilities, owners will replace retired vessels only with less expensive
vessels with a significant service life. This also indicates that the pace of
deployment of new automated tankers, which are capable of ensuring compliance
with environmental standards set by influential transport organizations, in
particular the International Maritime Organization (IMO), will be reduced, but
their cost and, accordingly, payback, due to increased transportation risks, is
higher.
The
use of tankers with a service life that significantly exceeds the service life
of a tanker in the global transportation market, and even the use of tankers
unsuitable for certain conditions, increases the risk of incidents at sea. An
example is the accident on 15.12.2024 of the river tankers
"Volgoneft-212" and "Volgoneft-239" under the flag of the
Russian Federation while passing through the Kerch Strait for transshipment of
oil from ship to ship in the Black Sea.
It
is characteristic from the point of view of assessing the service life of
tankers in the global transportation market (Fig. 3) that the service life of
the tankers "Volgoneft-212" and "Volgoneft-239" is more
than 50 years.
Oil
cannot be pumped out of the tanks of sunken ships and they permanently generate
a flow of pollution that forms a long-term threat to the biocenosis of the
Black Sea. The threat of sea pollution due to illegal transshipment in the open
sea to circumvent the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation is becoming a
permanent risk of war. Thus, on 03.06.2024, the fact of oil transshipment from
the Aframax tanker IMO 9247443 near Greece was
discovered. This indicated the use of this tanker on a permanent basis as a hub
for sanctioned oil products, which allows hiding their origin (SPRAVDI, 2025).
This is also a clear indication of the direct challenges of the war to green
and sustainable shipping and the leveling of the
international community's policy measures in the use of alternative fuels,
decarbonization and, in general, green transportation of cargo, primarily in
water areas close to the combat zone, but also the creation of threats to the
water areas of other seas.
Fig. 4.
Average life of Ukrainian merchant ships
Source:
developed by the author based on data UNCTADStat (2024)
4. RESULTS
As
mentioned, a set of variables of different formats is used to assess risks:
stochastic, deterministic, and fuzzy values. Military actions have led to the
need to take into account variables of another format - uncertain. The impact
of uncertain factors, primarily military threats, on maritime transportation
has its own characteristics: its importance may be greater than the combined
importance of other risk factors; the rate of its change is significant – in a
short time it can change from small to unacceptable values.
In
addition, military risks with a component of uncertainty determine the nature,
pace, and values of parameters of all aspects of maritime transportation:
logistics, fuel consumption, environmental pollution, etc. The impact of this
type of risk determines not only the local characteristics of sea
transportation - in the water area close to the combat zone, but also the
characteristics of the global maritime transportation market. Moreover, these
risks can serve as a trigger for a crisis in the maritime industry on a global
scale. At the same time, the threats of war are not always of an uncertain
nature. With a certain stabilization of military risk, it will have an unclear,
stochastic, or even deterministic nature. Thus, the delay of ships from
Ukrainian ports of the Sea of Azov in the Kerch Strait by the military forces
of the Russian Federation had an uncertain nature (see Fig. 5) and the factor
of growth in the average service life of Ukrainian merchant ships (see Fig. 4)
in war conditions acquires a statistical nature.
Fig. 5.
Comparison of data on wait times in ports in developing countries due to
COVID-19 and the Russian Federation's unjustified detention of Ukrainian
vessels in the Kerch Strait
Source:
developed by the author based on data from
Black Sea news (2021), UNCTAD (2023)
Calculations
of the value of the correlation coefficient (-0.1419), which shows the level of
statistical connection of the indicators of vessel delays in the Kerch Strait
due to the pandemic and for military reasons, indicated that its value is not
only insignificant (as is known, a significant level of correlation coefficient
values starts from 0.5), but even negative. This confirms the uncertain, rather
than stochastic, nature of the delays of Ukrainian vessels during the passage
of representatives of the Russian authorities through the Kerch Strait during
the non-pandemic period.
The
problem of calculating and analyzing military risks
is not only their uncertainty and dynamic nature. They can take various forms:
vessel delays in ports for days, weeks, and even months; a sudden increase in
the price of tanker rental even with a significant level of their depreciation
due to restrictions on oil transportation; transportation costs due to a
significant increase in insurance rates (see Fig. 6); threats to the biocenosis
due to permanent pollution of the sea with oil products from sunken Russian
ships, the purpose of which was exclusively river transportation, that is, they
a priori should not have been used for sea transportation, etc. A sign of the
impact of the war on maritime transport is also the fact that the Lloyd's
Markets Association (LMA) added to the list of high-risk zones not only the
Azov-Black Sea water areas adjacent to the countries participating in the war,
but also the internal waters of Ukraine and water areas throughout the
territory of the Russian Federation. This triggered an increase in P&I
(Protection and Indemnity) rates for other insurance companies. Also, given the
growing threat of damage to the ship or its loss, insurance rates for H&M
(hull and machinery) have increased. But the interval nature of the
introduction of additional insurance premiums for ships going to the ports of
Greater Odessa in February 2023 (0.75% of the ship's value) and the Danube
ports of Ukraine (0.3-0.5%) (see Fig. 6) indicates that although freight rates
depend on military risks, they are determined by the fact of the occurrence of
the risk and not by the result of its forecast. Fig. 6 uses the standard unit
of measurement of the freight rate – the price of transporting one ton of cargo
($/ton).
It
should be noted that since military threats to the seaports of the countries
participating in the war actually level the concept of the competitiveness of
their ports, the factor of the influence of competition on freight rates was
excluded from consideration.
Fig. 6.
Dynamics of freight rates, $/tons
Source:
developed by the author based on data from
the Information Agency Metal Expert LLC (2025)
This
is confirmed in particular by the fact that in December 2023, freight rates for
Ukrainian ports differed by more than half (see Fig. 6) although the seaport of
Reni is located in the Odessa region. The impact of uncertainty also forces
reconsidering the idea that freight rate changes are exclusively cyclical in
nature, since this, in particular, is refuted by the data presented in Fig. 6.
This
limits the traditional use of recursive vector autoregression for freight rate
forecasting and increases the need to apply methods that take into account
uncertain risk components.
At
the same time, the uncertain component of war risks is implicitly present in
the assessment of the level of liability of some tanker fleet insurance
companies for their obligations. If before the large-scale hostilities, the
insurers in the maritime transportation market were mainly Western companies,
then, as an inspection by Estonian institutional structures showed, more than
25% of insurance policies for ships transporting oil from the Baltic ports of
the Russian Federation were provided by Russian insurance companies (Bloomberg,
2024). Since 7% of the total volume of maritime transportation of petroleum
products passes through the Danish straits, this problem has also arisen for
the Danish authorities (Bloomberg, 2024). The same problem has arisen for the
Turkish authorities, since the Russian insurance companies Ingosstrakh
and Sogaz provide the largest amount of insurance for
tankers transporting oil from the Black Sea ports of the Russian Federation
through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles. This is reinforced by the fact that
the volumes of crude oil shipments from the Russian Federation’s Black Sea
coast berths – Novorossiysk, including the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal
(4 million tons per year), constitute about 2% of the global market for
maritime transportation of petroleum products.
The
risks of testing in practice, in the event of a significant oil spill, the reliability of insurance companies, whose
share of the insurance market was obtained as a result of a significant
deformation of the global insurance system, which has proven its effectiveness
over a sufficiently long period of time, are characterized by a significant
level of uncertainty.
Significant
threats to shipping in certain water areas require the introduction of
fragmented logistics schemes, primarily the expansion of the ro-ro network.
Although this results in increased fuel consumption and, accordingly, increased
emissions of carbon and nitrogen oxides into the atmosphere, this does not
reduce the need to optimize routes and modes of economical use of fuel
resources. Since changes in shipping risks are dynamic, reducing losses
requires highly effective digital technologies, in particular, artificial
intelligence (AI), cloud computing, digital twins, etc. The importance of AI
technologies is increasing for the needs of managing ro-ro networks, in
conditions of a forced increase in their density, to minimize overloading of
ro-ro vessels and maximize the use of ro-ro network capacities. The consequence
caused by the war is an increase in the gamma index in the Black Sea water area
for the countries participating in the war, which is an integral indicator of
the level of connectivity of national ro-ro networks. The growth of this
indicator occurs due to the growth of the number of connections of national
ro-ro networks. For example, for Ukraine, this indicator has increased almost
to the level of leading countries - Bulgaria and Georgia. The gamma index is a
relative indicator of the economic efficiency of ro-ro transportation and
therefore indicates that the vector of geopolitical factors can both worsen and
contribute to the indicators of the state of shipping in the Black Sea.
The
use of ro-ro vessels in intermodal transportation also requires a significant
level of coordination, since the economic efficiency of the ro-ro network
depends on the arrival of appropriate volumes of cargo at ports, which leads to
the possibility of imbalances in direct and return cargo flows. There is also a
problem of inconsistency with related modes of transport. The problem of using
ro-ro vessels in intermodal transportation under the influence of military
risks can also be significant dynamic deviations of such parameters as the time
of vessels en route and the time of service in ports.
This also requires the use of digital resources.
The
use of artificial intelligence for the implementation of autonomous navigation
systems is also of particular importance, since it makes it possible to reduce
crews and, thereby, protect them from risks. But the problem is that widely
used software complexes for forming optimal logistics routes based on AI
(Artificial Intelligence), such as Wärtsilä’s Fleet
Optimization Solution (Mba, 2024) are unsuitable for use in conditions of
military threats.
At
the same time, the problem of using alternative fuels changes emphasis under
military risks, since the risk of environmental pollution by the greenhouse gas
methane increases significantly due to the depressurization of Liquefied
Natural Gas (LNG) tanks not only on ships but also in bunkering ports and due
to the risk of destruction of the ship or port infrastructure by explosion with
minor damage to hydrogen or LNG fuel systems. The use of biofuels, on the
contrary, reduces the risk of sea pollution compared to traditional fuel oil.
But this requires additional costs for the development of infrastructure and
logistics for the supply of biofuels, which is problematic for the parties to
the conflict. This requires a review of traditional methods of taking risks
into account, even at the stage of forming a set of parameters for assessing
threats and determining the vector and weight of their impact.
Countries
whose territories occupy a significant part of the Black Sea coast stopped
equipping ports with bunkering capacities for alternative fuels as a result of
the war. Therefore, even the most widely used alternative fuel by the world
fleet - LNG, has a share of use in the Black Sea area of less than 0.57%, and
methanol - less than 0.05% (European Maritime Safety Agency, 2025). This
significantly narrows the opportunities for promoting green shipping of the
countries in the northern Black Sea, which are world leaders in the export of
agricultural products, i.e., would have significant prospects for the
production of biofuels in peacetime, in particular, biomethane, Fischer-Tropsch
synthetic diesel fuel, and renewable methanol. Moreover, according to forecasts,
in 2030 the total cost of ownership of resources for the production of some
types of biofuels, in particular hydrotreated vegetable oil and Fischer-Tropsch synthetic diesel, will be equivalent to the same
figure for marine fossil fuels (European Maritime Safety Agency, 2025). At the
same time, the introduction of alternative fuel bunkering capacities by
countries not directly involved in hostilities in the Black Sea region, in
particular the renewable methanol bunkering infrastructure in the port of
Constanta (Romania), will contribute to green shipping in the northern part of
the Black Sea. The threat of higher emissions from polluting ships has long
been felt in Turkey, which controls the straits of the Black and Mediterranean
Seas, which is why this country actively promotes the use of alternative fuels.
The
integration of legal and administrative measures in the water areas of
concentration of transport routes of vessels with the program "Digital
Twin of the Ocean" looks promising, which allows the use of real-time
information from onboard sensors of vessels, and satellite control systems.
This will accelerate the processes of decarbonization of shipping in the Black
Sea after the end of hostilities.
This
indicates a significant need for maritime transport to assess military threats.
At the same time, failure to take into account the level of uncertainty of
these threats leads to improper relevance of the results, which causes
complications for many aspects of maritime transportation. Therefore, in some
cases, assessment methods, for example, in the insurance business, deliberately
overestimate the level of threats. Since the metrics of risk factors are
different: stochastic, deterministic, and fuzzy; are uncertain, then the
proposed approach of “colored” noise makes it
possible to separate the metric of uncertain factors from others and further
apply known calculation methods (Kotenko et al., 2023).
5. CONCLUSIONS
The
threats to cargo transportation in the Black Sea and the directions of their
impact on the maritime transport industry were investigated. It was found, in
contrast to the approaches proposed in the studies of Chrysafis
et al. (2022), that failure to take into account the uncertain component of
risks reduces the relevance of forecasts in all aspects of maritime
transportation: technological, logistical, in the field of cargo and ship
insurance, etc. This is especially true in the conditions of hostilities, which
are characterized by a high level of uncertainty. Unfortunately, the effects of
war are often not even taken into account by researchers in the list of causes
of ship damage (Kuzu, 2021). The presented study also indicates that in
addition to the direct impact of war on the formation of threats to shipping,
there is also a significant indirect impact, which is often not taken into
account by researchers (Huang et al. 2023). In particular, it is indicated that
hostilities in the Black Sea basin lead to a steady trend of increasing the
average service life of merchant ships, primarily ships of the warring parties.
This increases the risks of accidents and has already led to significant
threats to marine biocenosis. It is indicated that in some cases the weight of
uncertain factors may be greater than the deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy
parameters, which are traditionally used to assess the level of threats to
cargo transportation by sea. It is also noted that the influence of uncertainty
of military risks limits the use of recursive vector autoregression for
forecasting freight rates, contrary, in particular, to the statements of Jeon
et al. (2021).
The
study proposed an approach that differs from the methods of other researchers
(Park Sang-A, 2025) in that it uses isolating and assessing uncertain
components of threats to maritime transport. The results of calculations using
statistical approaches and an algorithm with uncertain parameters indicated
convergence in the absence of uncertainty and a substantiated divergence of
results in the presence of an uncertain influence. Comparison with the results
of forecasts using the ARIMA method (Zaborskyi et al.,
2025) confirmed the greater relevance of the proposed method.
It
is proposed to conduct risk assessment using an interval approach with an
uneven distribution of the resulting function over the area of existence and
requiring its subsequent refinement as new data is received. Therefore, the
developed approach does not exclude the use of parameter estimation methods
with other metrics, in particular the method used by Gulen et al. (2025). These
methods are proposed to be used at the second stage of analysis to correct the
forecast in the identified interval of values. Also, the vector approach used
in the proposed mathematical model allows taking into account the different
orientations of the vectors of influence of uncertain factors, which will
increase the relevance of the assessment of the resulting function.
The
increasing relevance of maritime transport forecasts will increase the ability
of all stakeholders to prevent threats and mitigate their consequences. Taking
into account the uncertain component of risks is important not only during war,
but also necessary in the post-war period for the merchant fleet to acquire a
greater level of sustainability, form development directions in the
introduction of digital, green technologies, methods for optimizing logistics
routes, etc.
Acknowledgement
This
publication was supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine
12/27/2023 No. 1572 within the project No. 0124U000632: Neuromodeling
of the anti-entropy of the agro-trading logistics
system of Ukraine.
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Received 21.06.2025; accepted in revised form 20.08.2025
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