Article citation information:
Macioszek,
E., Jurdana, I. Analysis of
the development of e-commerce in Poland from
2010-2020 and its impact on the transport sector. Scientific Journal of Silesian University of Technology. Series
Transport. 2022, 116, 197-209.
ISSN: 0209-3324. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20858/sjsutst.2022.116.12.
Elżbieta MACIOSZEK[1], Irena JURDANA[2]
ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF E-COMMERCE IN POLAND FROM 2010-2020 AND
ITS IMPACT ON THE TRANSPORT SECTOR
Summary. Trade with
the use of internet technology (e-commerce) provides new opportunities for
expansion on a larger scale for already existing business entities and offers
prospects for rapid development for new companies. This is possible due to the
low entry barriers that encourage the sale of products. Online retail trade is
gaining increased popularity in Poland. This article aims to analyze e-commerce development in Poland from 2010-2020.
This analysis is based on data from the Central Statistical Office. The
results of the analysis clearly show that the share of purchases made via the
internet has been systematically growing from year to year. This growth
contributes to the faster development of transport logistics, as well as
the transport of the goods itself.
Keywords: e-commerce,
online store logistics, logistics of transport, transport company
1. INTRODUCTION
Trade is
an important part of the Polish economy, belonging to the broadly understood sphere of services. In
the Polish Classification
of Activities, wholesale
and retail trade entities are classified
under section G, covering the following types of economic activity: wholesale and retail sale (that
is, a sale that
does not require processing) of all types of goods, provision of services related to
the sale of goods, repair
of motor vehicles and motorcycles.
The retail sector is the third largest sector of the Polish economy. In 2018, it generated almost 17.6% of gross value added
[16].
Electronic
commerce (e-commerce) is a very dynamically developing sector of the Polish
economy. Every year in Poland, it increasingly gains followers. Poland ranks
thirteenth among the fastest growing e-commerce markets in the world. The ease
and availability of e-commerce around the clock increasingly attract
e-consumers. The tools for concluding transactions are constantly
changing through the continuous implementation of advanced IT and logistics
technologies, all to simplify the purchasing path of the buyer [1, 4, 6].
The
main driving force behind innovative technologies is consumers, as they show
their lifestyle and how to meet their expectations. E-commerce reaches an
increasing number of older people who trust internet transactions, as well as
the younger population who use mobile applications to make purchases via the
internet on an ongoing basis [3, 11].
This
article aims to analyze e-commerce development in Poland from 2010-2020. This
analysis is based on data from the Central Statistical Office. The results of
the analysis clearly show that the share of purchases made via the internet has
been systematically growing from year to year. This growth contributes to the
development of transport logistics, as well as the transport of the goods
itself. This article consists of five sections. After the introduction, the
second section presents and characterizes the types of logistic services that
occur in e-commerce. The third section highlights the issues of e-commerce in
Poland. While section four contains descriptive statistics of selected
e-commerce data in Poland from 2010-2020. This analysis is based on data from
the Central Statistical Office. Finally, the fifth section contains conclusions
from the research presented in this article.
2. TYPES OF
LOGISTIC SERVICE IN ELECTRONIC TRADE
The main forms
of logistics services in e-commerce include own warehouse,
just-in-time, dropshipping and fulfillment.
Each of these forms of logistics service has its advantages
and disadvantages [20, 21]. The choice of a given
type of logistics service depends on many factors. The first basic type of logistics
service is having your own warehouse.
This model allows for
immediate execution of the order, of which
the service is at the highest level. Customers are more
likely to return for a repeat
purchase, and
thus, encourage their relatives to take advantage of the store's offer. The main advantages of this form of logistics service include, above all, full control
of orders, a high level
of customer service, fast delivery,
the possibility of personal
pickup and the lack of intermediaries.
On the other hand, the disadvantages are the freezing of cash in the goods during the storage of goods, limited storage space, and additional costs related to employing new employees [14].
Another type
of logistics service for internet enterprises is "just-in-time ". In this form of logistics service, the entrepreneur
offers a full range of products with virtually none in stock
[15]. This solution does not require a warehouse. Correct integration of the system with the supplier's system allows for the efficient functioning of this type of solution. The dependence between
the entrepreneur and the supplier
of the product may cause a delay in the execution of orders, which automatically affects customer
satisfaction. The main advantages of this form of logistics service include, primarily, the reduction
of storage costs and the possibility of offering a large number of products. Defects are, however,
the occurrence of delays in
deliveries, lower quality of customer service and possible shortages of products.
Dropshipping [9] is
another solution in the logistics process. It consists in transferring from the
online store all operations related to the implementation of the order to the supplier,
for example, a wholesaler or manufacturer.
The main advantages of this form of logistics service include, importantly, low
start-up costs and quick order fulfillment, low risk of financial
loss,
no warehouse, and product
flexibility. On the other hand, the main disadvantages are errors in orders and
investments in IT integration with a wholesaler, which may result in complications
in fiscal settlements and possible returns and customer complaints.
Fulfillment [10] consists
in transferring all warehouse operations to another entity. This entity is
responsible for all logistics-related processes in
the store. In this model,
we only make payments for specific operations, so there is no need
to hire employees or rent warehouse space. The advantages of this form of logistic service include, particularly, the fact
that logistics and sales service belongs to an external company,
which allows us to save time
that can be spent on other activities related to the company, as well as converting fixed costs into
variable costs. In turn,
the disadvantages of this
form of logistics service include
higher own costs for the enterprise
than in the case of running its own warehouse and the lack of control over warehouse
processes.
Opening an online store is an
opportunity for small, medium and large
entrepreneurs entering the
e-commerce market. A visible factor
causing an advantage over the competition is the years of experience gained in the
market and the trust of customers [7]. Due to the opinions and comments issued in the network,
stores gain new buyers. Customers have increased requirements related to product quality and order service. Therefore,
online stores must constantly
search for innovative solutions to increase their competitiveness. In some cases, the best solution turns
out to be a combination of several
logistic customer service models by selecting the appropriate configuration. Following the Pareto principle, 20% of the assortment generates 80% of the turnover. Therefore, the best-selling products should be kept in the
company’s warehouse
to ensure high-quality customer service.
The
logistics of an online store should usually be considered in three areas [13]:
- supplies
(contact with suppliers),
- internal (storage, picking),
- deliveries (shipment of the ordered goods).
The
supply area for online stores and the related logistics, as in the case of
traditional stores, is usually less known. The reason for such a state of
affairs is the fact that sources of supply are usually an essential element of
competitive advantage and entrepreneurs are reluctant to share information on
this subject. This is particularly reflected in e-commerce, where the pricing
strategy is still the main way of competing. Another area of online store
logistics is the implementation of internal logistics processes related mainly
to the broadly understood warehouse management (inventory, completion,
replenishment, order handling, returns, complaints, reverse
logistics). The last of the considered areas of logistics for online stores is
the area of delivery, which involves the physical delivery of the purchased
goods to the customer. This is a special part of the order handling process
related directly to the physical interaction with the customer. The specificity
of this area results from the fact that the time of order fulfillment (measured
from placing the order to the physical delivery of the ordered goods) is, in
addition to the price of the goods, one of the main determinants of choosing an
online store.
3. CHARACTERISTICS OF E-COMMERCE
IN POLAND
In
2020, 20 million people aged 16 to 74 made purchases over the internet in
Poland. Polish e-commerce is in the process of dynamic development. Online
stores and mobile applications are increasing, and the number of people
shopping online is constantly growing. The reason for this is the dynamic
development of IT services and the possibility of settling many official
matters via the internet. The year 2020, which was the beginning of the
pandemic, significantly accelerated the development of e-commerce in Poland.
Figure 1 shows the increase in the value of the e-commerce market in Poland
from 2010-2020. The forecast [20] assumes that the value of the Polish
e-commerce market would increase to PLN 80 billion in 2021, PLN 92 billion in
2022, and amount to PLN 104 billion in 2023. In 2024, the market will grow by
another PLN 14 billion, to an estimated PLN 118 billion.
It
is estimated that in the coming years, the value of electronic commerce in
Poland may even double [19]. This is because our everyday life is becoming
increasingly dominated by various types of technological solutions. Almost
everyone uses a smartphone today. The e-commerce industry is technologically
enhanced and better prepared to serve e-customers via mobile carriers.
Fig.
1. The e-commerce market in Poland from 2010-2020
Source:
Authors’ research based on [5]
Several factors influence the rise in the number of online stores, as
well as the importance of e-commerce itself. Undoubtedly, the restriction of
trade on Sundays prompted entrepreneurs to transfer their activities, at least
to some extent, to the internet. In addition, Poles' preferences for
convenience contributed to the development of this type of shop. Besides,
online stores, in addition to attractive prices (often lower than prices
in physical stores), usually offer customers numerous amenities, including free
returns, the possibility of quick payment, efficient operation and search for
goods, etc. Figure 2 shows the number of registered online stores in Poland
from 2013-2021.
Based
on Figure 2, it can be concluded that the number of online stores has been
systematically growing since
Fig. 2. The number of registered online stores in Poland from 2013-2021
(data from 2021 are for January 2021)
Source: Author’ research based on [5]
4. ANALYSIS OF E-COMMERCE IN POLAND FROM 2010-2020
This
section presents an analysis of data on the e-commerce sector and the purchase
of goods and services online in Poland from 2010-2020. The number of people
using online stores is systematically growing. The share of people using the
internet over these ten years increased from 64.9 to 84.9%, which indicates an
increase of 19.5%. In Figure 3a, the number of people
using e-commerce broken down by gender is presented. In fact, in each of the
analyzed years, women use e-commerce slightly more than men. This difference
ranges from 1.86 to 1.94 million. In the years from 2016 to 2020, the
difference between these groups was no longer that significant and amounted to
about 500 000, but the group of women was still dominant. On the other hand,
when analyzing the structure of people ordering goods or services via the
internet by education (elementary and junior high, secondary, higher), it can
be concluded that the number of people in each group in the analyzed period
showed an upward trend (Figure 3b).
The
group with the most people shopping on the internet was those with secondary
education. However, in the group of people with higher education, there has
been a significant increase in interest in online shopping in recent years.
Over the entire period of the analysis, this increase rose to 113%.
At
a later stage of the work, the number of people ordering goods or services via
the internet was analyzed according to the average net income per household
(Figure 4a). The analysis distinguishes four groups according
to net income per household. These are:
- group 1 - from 1 536 to 2 900 PLN,
- group 2 - from 1 536 to 4 200 PLN,
- group 3 - from 2 323 to 6 450 PLN,
- group 4 - from 3 760 to 6 450 PLN.
|
a). |
|
|
|
|
|
b). |
|
|
Fig. 3. The number of people using online stores in Poland
from 2010-2020:
(a). broken down by gender, (b). broken
down by level of education
Source:
Authors’ research based on [5]
It
can be noticed that in individual groups, the values overlap in certain ranges.
This is due to the annual increase in the minimum wage in Poland. The highest
increase of 200% was recorded in group 1, although this group is characterized
by the lowest net income. The next group with high growth was group 2 with a
result of 139%, then group 3 with an increase of 96% and group 4 with an
increase of 53%.
Until
2016, people living in a city with more than 100 000 inhabitants turned out to
be the group with the least number of people who shop online (Figure 4b). From 2017 to 2020, the group of people living in rural
areas had the highest number of shopping online. Rural residents were also
characterized by the highest growth dynamics, given the number of goods ordered
via the internet. This increase over the period of ten years was as much as
161%.
|
a). |
|
|
|
|
|
b). |
|
|
Fig.
4. The number of people using online stores in Poland from 2010-2020:
(a). broken down by the amount of net income per
household, (b). by place of residence
Source: Authors’ research based on [5]
At
a later stage of this work, the frequency of online purchases was analyzed. The
following time intervals were adopted in this analysis: 1-2 times a week, 3-5
times a week, 6-10 times a week and more than 10 times a week (Table 1). Due to
the availability of data in the Central Statistical Office, the years from 2015
to 2020 were assumed as the period of analysis. Analyzing the data presented in
Table 1, it can be concluded that most people use online stores 1-2 times a
week and 3-5 times a week. The highest growth dynamics, especially in recent
years, can be noticed in the group of people who use online stores more than 10
times a week; however, it is the least numerous group.
In
Figure 5a, the number of people using online stores
in Poland from 2010-2020 is presented, broken down by the amount allocated to
spending on the internet (purchase of goods and services). The following ranges
of amounts allocated for purchases were adopted:
- up to 150 PLN,
- from 151 to 450 PLN,
- from 451 to 950 PLN,
- from 951 to 1400 PLN.
Tab. 1
The number of people using online stores from
2015-2020 according to the given frequencies
|
Year |
From
1 to 2 times a week |
From
3 to 5 times a week |
From
6 to 10 times a week |
More
than 10 times a week |
|
2015 |
3 291 212 |
2 403 289 |
1 034 859 |
240 452 |
|
2016 |
3 751 687 |
3 332 790 |
1 488 661 |
414 502 |
|
2017 |
4 142 040 |
3 567 142 |
1 501 216 |
489 935 |
|
2018 |
4 139 469 |
4 103 454 |
1 860 860 |
732 623 |
|
2019 |
4 558 079 |
4 688 580 |
2 089 972 |
737 356 |
|
2020 |
4 365 440 |
5 174 779 |
2 414 030 |
1 569 328 |
Source: Authors’ research based on [5].
The
highest dynamics of growth of 98% over the last ten years is characterized by
the number of people shopping online in the range of amounts from 151 to 450
PLN. On the other hand, in the group of amounts ranging from 451 to 950 PLN, a
significant increase in the number of people by as much as 76% was also
recorded. The number of people shopping online with a value of 951 to 1,400 PLN
increased by almost a half. This increase is 47%. In turn, the smallest number
of people do small shopping on the internet with the amount not exceeding PLN
150. In Figure 5b, the total value of ordered goods
and services in particular years is presented.
In
Table 2, the number of people using online stores in Poland from 2010-2019 is
presented, broken down into various categories of purchases, such as:
- food, drinks, stimulants, cosmetics, cleaning agents,
- furniture, vehicles, household appliances, tools, toys,
jewelry,
- movies, music,
- books, magazines, newspapers.
Analyzing
the data contained in Table 2, it can be concluded that the most purchased
goods on the internet come from the category "food, beverages, stimulants,
cosmetics, cleaning agents". Purchase of goods in this group increased by
156% over the last nine years. A significant 67% increase in purchases
also took place in the "furniture, vehicles, household appliances, tools,
toys, jewelry" category. On the one hand, sales of films and music
carriers decreased by 13%. While, on the other hand, a slight increase of only
19% was recorded in the "books, magazines and newspapers"
category.
The
number of people ordering goods or services via the internet from 2010-2020
according to their professional status is presented in Figure 6. The group of
economically active people includes working and unemployed people. The increase
in the number of people making purchases over the internet during the period
under analysis in this group amounts to 104%. The group of economically
inactive people includes those in education and those with the status of a
pensioner. The increase in the number of people shopping online in this group
amounts to 69%. The data presented in Figure 6 allows concluding that
professionally active people are much more likely to shop online than
professionally inactive people.
|
a). |
|
|
|
|
|
b). |
|
|
Fig.
5. The number of people using online stores in Poland from 2010-2020:
(a). broken down by the amount allocated to spending
on the internet,
(b). total value of ordered goods and services
Source: Authors’ research based on [5]
Tab. 2
The number of people using online stores in Poland
from 2010-2019
broken down into different categories of purchases
|
Year |
Food,
drinks, stimulants, cosmetics, cleaning agents |
Furniture,
vehicles, household appliances, tools, toys, jewelry |
Movies,
music |
Books,
magazines, newspapers |
|
2010 |
1 624 206 |
3 632 621 |
1 652 717 |
2 587 013 |
|
2011 |
1 630 424 |
3 536 265 |
1 370 042 |
2 538 490 |
|
2012 |
1 983 244 |
4 177 008 |
1 536 372 |
2 523 015 |
|
2013 |
2 357 549 |
4 295 440 |
1 598 202 |
2 679 428 |
|
2014 |
2 510 770 |
4 381 056 |
1 225 350 |
2 414 892 |
|
2015 |
2 057 896 |
3 665 505 |
908 738 |
2 151 668 |
|
2016 |
2 646 109 |
4 772 426 |
1 076 078 |
2 766 497 |
|
2017 |
3 257 019 |
5 181 464 |
1 297 123 |
2 972 396 |
|
2018 |
3 369 136 |
5 659 067 |
1 156 237 |
2 884 236 |
|
2019 |
4 165 667 |
6 064 099 |
1 442 589 |
3 078 320 |
|
Growth % |
156% |
67% |
-13% |
19% |
Source: Authors’ research based on [5].
Fig. 6. The
number of economically active and inactive people using online stores in Poland
from 2010-2020
Source:
Authors’ research based on [5]
5. THE IMPACT
OF E-COMMERCE DEVELOPMENT ON THE TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS SECTOR
The dynamic development of e-commerce has been the driving force of the
logistics and transport market for over ten years. E-commerce has undoubtedly
influenced the volume of domestic and cross-border goods transport and the
development of transport services. Part of the Transport, Freight Forwarding,
Logistics (TFFL) market, represented by companies
from the courier, express and parcel services, is a particular beneficiary of
the increase in online sales. The courier, express and parcel services are
currently one of the fastest growing markets in Poland, and the number of
parcels it handles has increased by over 60% over the last five years [12].
The main task of
transport services is not only replenishing stocks but also, primarily, fast
delivery to the end customer and the development of the last mile delivery. The
last mile delivery is crucial for noise levels and air quality in cities where
transport is the second major source of pollution. E-commerce deliveries to
consumers account for only 0.5% of total traffic in urban areas. Physical
retailing generates 11% of such traffic. Deliveries of purchases in e-commerce
eliminate the need for consumers to travel to stores and help reduce traffic in
cities by 4 to 9 times [8]. Already in Europe, e-commerce has on average, less
negative environmental impact than non-food physical retail, which generates
1.5 to 2.9 times more CO2 than e-commerce, and increasingly,
companies base their supplies on electric vehicles, which are locally
completely emission-free and quiet; this is important, especially in most
crowded cities [8].
In addition, in recent
years, we have been observing investments in new technologies in forwarding and
transport companies, such as operating in the SaaS (Software as a Service)
system and the growing frequent use of ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) systems,
that is, precise planning of transport travel time to the warehouse, hub and
the client. This is because, for e-customers, information about the time of
delivery is extremely important not only when choosing an e-store where people
will shop, but also when choosing a product. Customers, apart from the price
criterion, usually choose the product that will reach them faster [2].
The analysis of "Road Freight Transportation Market in Europe
2020-2024" [17] indicates that the road freight market in Europe is
expected to grow to USD 58.43 billion by 2025 and will be largely driven by the
dynamically developing e-commerce industry, which is expected to affect truck
and bus transport that is an integral part of intermodal transport.
China's opening to the European markets is primarily a breakthrough in
the development of container and rail transport, hence, the need to make
significant infrastructure investments. The "Silk Road" initiative
provides for the transport of goods from China to Poland, and then their
distribution by road transport throughout Europe, which is a great opportunity
for Polish logistics for further development [12].
A significant number of carriers are aware of the recent increase in the
importance of e-commerce and are developing their company in this direction. At
the time when economies were defrosted after the lockdown, many transport
companies invested in semi-trailers to take courier orders. One of the
conditions for carrying out freight in the courier industry is the availability
of semi-trailers with a fixed structure (so-called boxes). Instead of the door,
a roller shutter is installed, which makes it possible to open and close the
car without having to put the car off the ramp.
6.
CONCLUSION
Modern
society is characterized by enormous technological progress, widespread
consumerism, and an increase in the mobility of the population. Civilization
changes occurring mainly in the technical area have caused changes in the way
people function and the perception of the surrounding reality. The expansion of
the media has led to significant social, economic, political and cultural
transformations, pointing to the decreased importance attached to capital and
material goods, with a simultaneous increase in the importance of intangible
factors, such as knowledge and information. E-commerce has been a dynamically
developing area for several years, arousing the interest of a wide group of
marketers. E-commerce includes a variety of methods that use means and
electronic devices such as mobile and landline phones, the internet and
television to conclude a commercial transaction. This article presents the analysis
of the development of e-commerce in Poland from 2010-2020. The analysis covers
such features of online sales as the total number of people ordering goods and
services on the internet, broken down by gender, education, income, place of
residence, professional status and category of ordered products, frequency of
purchases, and the total value of ordered goods in the e-commerce sector. The
analysis showed that in the analyzed period, the number of people ordering
goods and services online doubled. The dynamics of the growth of e-commerce are
enormous; this market will develop since there are no indications that anything
can stop this trend.
Acknowledgments: This publication is supported by the Rector’s
Pro-Quality Grant, Silesian University of Technology, under grant number 12/040/RGJ22/0047.
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Received 01.07.2022; accepted in
revised form 30.07.2022
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[2] Faculty of
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