Article citation information:

Macioszek, E., Kurek, A. International road cargo transport in Poland and other EU countries. Scientific Journal of Silesian University of Technology. Series Transport. 2021, 111, 99-108. ISSN: 0209-3324. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20858/sjsutst.2021.111.8.

 

 

Elżbieta MACIOSZEK[1], Agata KUREK[2]

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL ROAD CARGO TRANSPORT IN POLAND AND OTHER EU COUNTRIES

 

Summary. In the modern world, transport as an integral part of social life is important. The development of all modes of transport requires continuous efficient management of the transport process, as well as the use of tools to optimise this process. This article aims to analyse international road cargo transport in EU countries and Poland from 2008-2018. The first part of this article analyses the number of employees and the trade of transport companies in EU countries. Then, the share of individual modes of transport in the transport of cargo in Poland from 2008 and 2018 is presented. The next section presents the results of the forecast of the volume of cargo transported by road in Poland from 2019-2021. The forecast values of the volume of cargo transport in Poland for 2019-2021, which were determined from the additive and multiplicative model, are at a similar level to the values for 2008-2018.

Keywords: cargo transport, cargo transportation, transport company


 

1. INTRODUCTION

 

In the modern world, transport as an integral part of social life is important [1]. The development of civilisation, mass consumption, specialisation of labour, and the distant location of places of production of products necessary for human existence causes a territorial gap between the producer, seller, and buyer [9]. As distances extend, supply chains also lengthen, resulting in increased demand for transportation services [6]. Road transport is one of the most popular modes of transport in the world [2, 3]. The increase in the share of road cargo transport contributes to the increase in road traffic. On the other hand, the increasing traffic intensity on the roads affects the deterioration of road conditions, lowering the level of safety, and harms the natural environment [4, 5, 8]. In addition to the impact of transport on social life, it is equally important in the economy of any country [7, 11, 14].

A well-developed transport network is a key element for the development of an economy, both domestic and global. In addition, it enables the migration of people and is a link that allows the development of tourism. In the case of many countries in the world, it is strongly related to the real economic growth of the state, that is, the increase in real gross domestic product. Connections of regions in the transport network make it possible to transport cargo between suppliers and recipients. An important aspect is that due to the extensive and dense transport network, the possibility of transporting cargo between countries is ensured [10].

The development of all modes of transport requires the continuous development of transport process management, managing people working in this industry, as well as the use of tools to optimise this process. Appropriate management of any type of enterprise, be it service or production, requires forecasting activities in subsequent periods.

This article aims to analyse international road cargo transport in EU countries and Poland from 2008-2018. It consists of four sections. After the introduction, section two presents an analysis of international road cargo transport in EU countries from 2008-2015. The next section of the article presents the results of the forecast of the number of cargo transportation by road in Poland. Finally, the article ends with a summary.

 

 

2. ANALYSIS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ROAD CARGO TRANSPORT IN EU COUNTRIES AND POLAND FROM 2008-2015

 

Figure 1 shows the number of people employed in transport companies in 2008 and 2015 in individual EU countries. Among all EU countries, Germany had the largest number of employees in transport companies in 2008 (690 700 people). In France, registered people working in transport companies were 651 700, while in Spain - 611 700 people. In 2008, Great Britain and Italy employed over 500 000 people (526 500 and 514 900, respectively). Poland was in fifth place (436 600 people), followed by the Netherlands with 25 000 people. Less than 200 000 employees are registered in Romania (183 500), the Czech Republic (159 100), Sweden (137 900), Hungary (121 600), Greece (114 300), Austria (112, 00), and Portugal (104 100). In 2008, below 2% percentage share was recorded by Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, Ireland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Luxembourg, Cyprus, and Malta.

In 2015, as in 2008, Germany employed the largest number of employees in transport companies among all EU countries (427 100 people). France was second with 332 400 people. 327 900 people were registered in Poland, which puts Poland in third place among all EU countries that employed the largest number of people in transport companies. Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom were fourth, fifth and sixth, respectively, with 313 100, 31 000 and 259 700 employees. Romania, the Czech Republic, and the Netherlands had less than 200 000 employees; 133 000, 121 100 and 115 000, respectively. The following countries employed less than 100,000 people in transport companies: Sweden (78 300), Hungary (70 900), Portugal (63 200), Bulgaria (63 100), Austria (59 600), Belgium (58 000) , Lithuania (57 400), Finland (45 000), Slovakia (44 500), Denmark (36 100), Greece (30 200), Latvia (25 600), Ireland (22 800), Slovenia (22 400), Croatia (22 100), Estonia (16 000), Luxembourg (7 400), Cyprus (1 900) and Malta (1 200). It can be concluded that the number of employees in transport companies in the EU countries from 2008-2015 decreased by about 40% based on the data presented in Figure 1.

 

Fig. 1. The number of people employed in transport companies in
individual EU countries in 2008 and 2015

Source: Authors’ research based on data presented in [12]

 

Figure 2 shows the trade of transport companies in EU countries in 2008 and 2015. In 2018, the trade of transport companies in EU countries amounted to EUR 323 106 million. In 2015, however, the trade in total amounted to almost EUR 11 million more than in 2008.

Figures 3 and 4 present the shares of individual EU countries in the export and import of cargo in 2018. Based on the data presented in Figures 3 and 4, it can be concluded that the largest share in the EU countries, both in exports and imports of cargo, is held by Germany and the Czech Republic (around 40 and 10%, respectively). The share of other EU countries in exports and imports ranges from approximately 12 to 2%. Slovakia, which is the third country in the ranking of the largest transport of exported cargo (5.3%), recorded a result of 3.8% in imports in 2018, which gives it the seventh place among EU countries. Italy, with 4.9% of exports, is also fourth in terms of imports (6.4%). A similar situation can be observed in the case of France, which ranks fifth in both exports and imports, with the results of 4.5 and 4.2%, respectively. The Netherlands, with a 4.5% share in exports, ranks fifth, like France, while being in the top three importers of cargo in the EU in 2018 (6.8%). The United Kingdom ranked sixth in exports (4.0%), has a small share in the imports of cargo in the EU (1.7%). The seventh-largest transport of exported cargo is occupied by Hungary (3.5%), reaching 3.9% in imports. Lithuania, which obtained 3.4% in exports, recorded one percentage point less in the share of imports in the EU in 2018. Belgium was ninth in exports and eighth in imports, reaching 3.2 and 3.8%, respectively.

Fig. 2. Trade in cargo in transport companies in
individual EU countries in 2008 and 2015

Source: Authors’ research based on data presented in [12]

 

 

Fig. 3. The structure of transport of cargo imported in individual EU countries in 2018

Source: Authors’ research based on [12]

 

Fig. 4. The structure of transport of cargo exported in individual EU countries in 2018

Source: Authors’ research based on [12]

 

Figures 5 and 6 show the share of individual modes of transport in intermodal cargo transport in 2008 and 2018. It can be noted that in 2008, road transport had the largest share in cargo transport in Poland (80.89%) compared to other means of transport. The second most popular means of transporting cargo in 2008 was rail transport (15.03%). Then, the shares of individual forms of transport were successive: pipeline transport – 1.92%, inland shipping – 0.63%, sea shipping – 2.96%. In 2018, there was an increase in the transport of cargo by road (up to 85.50%), in favour of a decrease in the share of cargo transported by other means of transport: rail, inland, and sea transport, which in 2018 amounted to (11.40, 0.20, and 0.40%). It can therefore be concluded that there was a significant increase in the share of cargo transport by road in Poland from 2008-2018, which indicates a significant development of this mode of transport.

 

Fig. 5. The share of individual modes of transport in international cargo transport in Poland in 2008

Source: Authors’ research based on [12]

 

Fig. 6. The share of individual modes of transport in international cargo transport in Poland in 2018

Source: Authors’ research based on [12]

 

 

3. FORECAST OF THE NUMBER OF CARGO TRANSPORT IN POLAND

 

The method of seasonality indicators was used to forecast the volume of cargo transported by road in Poland from 2019-2021. The analysis presented in this paper is based on data for 2008-2018 obtained from the Central Statistical Office database [12]. Additionally, the forecast values for 2019 and 2020 were compared with the real values for 2019 and 2020. In determining the forecasts, an additive model (1) and a multiplicative model (2), were used. In the case of data that are distinguished by constant fluctuations in the time series, that is, those whose fluctuation amplitude is more or less constant, it was an additive model of absolute seasonal fluctuations. On the other hand, if the data are characterised by relatively constant fluctuations in the time series, that is, those whose fluctuation amplitude changes more or less in the same ratio, it is a multiplicative model of seasonal fluctuations [13]:

 

                                                        (1)

 

                                                       (2)

 

where:

 - constant coefficient;

 - model parameter;

T - time variable;

 - seasonal fluctuations in the additive model;

 - seasonal fluctuations in the multiplicative model.

 

Table 1 presents the volume of cargo transported by road in Poland in particular quarters from 2008-2018. Afterwards, a regression analysis of the ordered data presented in Table 1 was performed. The value of the coefficient of determination R2 = 0.92, while the p-values for the coefficients in the model are less than 0.05. Therefore, it can be concluded that the choice of the seasonality method was correct as the models were well adjusted to the statistical data.

Tab. 1

The number of cargo transported by road in Poland in the individual quarters of 2008-2018

Source: Authors’ research based on [12]

 

Year

Quarter

Number of transported cargo [million in tonne kilometres]

t

2008

I

41 390

1

II

44 034

2

III

42 254

3

IV

37 252

4

2009

I

42 755

5

II

45 400

6

III

48 087

7

IV

44 500

8

2010

I

45 790

9

II

51 590

10

III

55 201

11

IV

55 201

12

2011

I

50 581

13

II

52 864

14

III

51 794

15

IV

52 412

16

2012

I

53 061

17

II

57 147

18

III

57 652

19

IV

54 472

20

2013

I

57 036

21

II

65 340

22

III

64 602

23

IV

60 616

24

2014

I

61 362

25

II

62 808

26

III

63 343

27

IV

63 417

28

2015

I

63 257

29

II

67 680

30

III

65 129

31

IV

64 647

32

2016

I

71 195

33

II

77 300

34

III

71 533

35

IV

70 721

36

2017

I

76 809

37

II

84 916

38

III

86 055

39

IV

87 440

40

2018

I

77 946

41

II

83 132

42

III

77 624

43

IV

77 172

44

 

The next stage of the analysis was the determination of raw absolute seasonal fluctuations for individual quarters. Then the seasonal component was adjusted by determining pure absolute seasonal fluctuations. Table 2 shows obtained forecasting models.

 

Tab. 2

The obtained forecasting models based on the years 2008-2018

 

Quarter

Additive model

Multiplicative model

I

II

III

IV

 

The results of the forecast of the number of cargo transported by road in the particular quarters of 2019, 2020, and 2021 along with the values of the real number of cargo transported by road in 2019 and 2020 are presented in Table 3.

 

Tab. 3

The forecast results for 2019, 2020, and 2021 with the real data for 2019

 

Year

Quarter

Number of transported cargo [million in tonne kilometres]

T

Additive model

Multiplicative model

Real data

2019

I

85 951

85 904

85 395

45

II

90 311

91 149

86 666

46

III

82 301

82 831

90 867

47

IV

81 016

80 341

86 026

48

2020

I

89 932

90 004

95 753

49

II

94 292

95 448

79 710

50

III

86 282

86 692

-

51

IV

84 997

84 042

-

52

2021

I

93 912

94 104

-

53

II

98 272

99 747

-

54

III

90 263

90 553

-

55

IV

88 977

87 744

-

56

 

Figure 7 shows the number of cargo transported by road, real and forecast values for 2019-2021 using the additive and multiplicative model. Based on the presented data, it can be observed that the forecasted values obtained from the additive model are at a similar level to the values for 2008-2018. However, the forecasted values using the multiplicative model are linear, which is not consistent with the real values for 2019. Comparing the forecasted values with the real values, it can be seen that in the case of the first two quarters of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020, the forecast may be accurate. However, in the case of the third and fourth quarters of 2019, the values already differ significantly. The lack of data for 2020 in the databases available in Poland (Central Statistical Office) does not allow concluding on whether the model is well suited. Such a comparison will be possible only after the Central Statistical Office publishes the statistical data for 2020. In the case of the second quarter of 2020, a much higher value of the forecast than the real data may result from the occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

 

 

Fig. 7. The number of cargo transported by road in
particular periods from 2008-2018 in EU countries

Source: Authors’ research based on data presented in [12]


 

4. CONCLUSION

 

This article aimed to analyse international road cargo transport in Poland and EU countries from 2008-2018. Based on the analysis, the following conclusions can be drawn:

·         The number of employees employed in transport companies in EU countries decreased by about 40% during the analysed period. The reason for the decline in the number of employees may be the technological development that took place in these countries over the last dozen years, which contributed to the elimination of a certain part of the employees;

·         In Poland, there was a significant increase in the share of road cargo transport from 2008-2018, indicating a significant development of road cargo transport;

·         The forecasted values of the volume of cargo transport in Poland for 2019-2021, which were determined from the additive and multiplicative model, are at a similar level to the values for 2008-2018;

·         A comparison of the forecasted values with the real values for 2019 shows that the forecast for the first two quarters is correct. To confirm the correctness of the forecast for the third and fourth quarters, it would be necessary to compare the data for the following years, which will be possible only after the Central Statistical Office provides data for the years 2020 and 2021. However, the COVID-19 pandemic situation that occurred in 2020 probably largely influenced the volume of road cargo transport.

 

 

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Received 30.10.2020; accepted in revised form 12.01.2021

 

 

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Scientific Journal of Silesian University of Technology. Series Transport is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License



[1] Faculty of Transport and Aviation Engineering, The Silesian University of Technology, Krasińskiego 8 Street, 40-019 Katowice, Poland. Email: elzbieta.macioszek@polsl.pl. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1345-0022

[2] Faculty of Transport and Aviation Engineering, The Silesian University of Technology, Krasińskiego 8 Street, 40-019 Katowice, Poland. Email: agata.kurek@polsl.pl. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0648-1680