Article
citation information:
Macioszek, E., Kurek, A. International road cargo
transport in Poland and other EU countries. Scientific
Journal of Silesian University of Technology. Series Transport. 2021, 111, 99-108. ISSN: 0209-3324. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20858/sjsutst.2021.111.8.
Elżbieta
MACIOSZEK[1],
Agata KUREK[2]
INTERNATIONAL
ROAD CARGO TRANSPORT IN POLAND AND OTHER EU COUNTRIES
Summary. In the modern world, transport as an integral part of
social life is important. The development of all modes of transport requires
continuous efficient management of the transport process, as well as the use of
tools to optimise this process. This article aims to analyse international road
cargo transport in EU countries and Poland from 2008-2018. The first part of
this article analyses the number of employees and the trade of transport
companies in EU countries. Then, the share of individual modes of transport in
the transport of cargo in Poland from 2008 and 2018 is presented. The next
section presents the results of the forecast of the volume of cargo transported
by road in Poland from 2019-2021. The forecast values of the volume of cargo
transport in Poland for 2019-2021, which were determined from the additive and
multiplicative model, are at a similar level to the values for 2008-2018.
Keywords: cargo transport, cargo transportation, transport company
1. INTRODUCTION
In the
modern world, transport as an integral part of social life is important [1].
The development of civilisation, mass consumption, specialisation of
labour, and the distant location of places of production of products necessary
for human existence causes a territorial gap between the producer, seller, and
buyer [9]. As distances extend, supply chains also lengthen, resulting in
increased demand for transportation services [6]. Road transport is one of the
most popular modes of transport in the world [2, 3]. The increase in the share
of road cargo transport contributes to the increase in road traffic. On the
other hand, the increasing traffic intensity on the roads affects the
deterioration of road conditions, lowering the level of safety, and harms the
natural environment [4, 5, 8]. In addition to the impact of transport on social
life, it is equally important in the economy of any country [7, 11, 14].
A
well-developed transport network is a key element for the development of an
economy, both domestic and global. In addition, it enables the migration of people
and is a link that allows the development of tourism. In the case of many
countries in the world, it is strongly related to the real economic growth of
the state, that is, the increase in real gross domestic product. Connections of
regions in the transport network make it possible to transport cargo between
suppliers and recipients. An important aspect is that due to the extensive and
dense transport network, the possibility of transporting cargo between
countries is ensured [10].
The
development of all modes of transport requires the continuous development of
transport process management, managing people working in this industry, as well
as the use of tools to optimise this process. Appropriate management of any
type of enterprise, be it service or production, requires forecasting
activities in subsequent periods.
This
article aims to analyse international road cargo transport in EU countries and
Poland from 2008-2018. It consists of four sections. After the introduction,
section two presents an analysis of international road cargo transport in EU
countries from 2008-2015. The next section of the article presents the results
of the forecast of the number of cargo transportation by road in Poland.
Finally, the article ends with a summary.
2. ANALYSIS OF THE INTERNATIONAL ROAD CARGO
TRANSPORT IN EU COUNTRIES AND POLAND FROM 2008-2015
Figure 1 shows the number
of people employed in transport companies in 2008 and
In 2015,
as in 2008, Germany employed the largest number of employees in transport
companies among all EU countries (427 100 people). France was second with 332
400 people. 327 900 people were registered in Poland, which puts Poland in
third place among all EU countries that employed the largest number of people
in transport companies. Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom were fourth, fifth
and sixth, respectively, with 313 100, 31 000 and 259 700 employees.
Romania, the Czech Republic, and the Netherlands had less than 200 000
employees; 133 000, 121 100 and 115 000, respectively. The following countries
employed less than 100,000 people in transport companies: Sweden (78 300),
Hungary (70 900), Portugal (63 200), Bulgaria (63 100), Austria (59 600),
Belgium (58 000) , Lithuania (57 400), Finland (45 000), Slovakia (44 500),
Denmark (36 100), Greece (30 200), Latvia (25 600), Ireland (22 800),
Slovenia (22 400), Croatia (22 100), Estonia (16 000), Luxembourg (7 400),
Cyprus (1 900) and Malta (1 200). It can be concluded that the number of
employees in transport companies in the EU countries from 2008-2015 decreased
by about 40% based on the data presented in Figure 1.
Fig. 1. The number of
people employed in transport companies in
individual EU countries in 2008 and 2015
Source:
Authors’ research based on data presented in [12]
Figure 2
shows the trade of transport companies in EU countries in 2008 and
Figures 3
and 4 present the shares of individual EU countries in the export and import of
cargo in 2018. Based on the data presented in Figures 3 and 4, it can be
concluded that the largest share in the EU countries, both in exports and
imports of cargo, is held by Germany and the Czech Republic (around 40 and 10%,
respectively). The share of other EU countries in exports and imports ranges
from approximately 12 to 2%. Slovakia, which is the third country in the
ranking of the largest transport of exported cargo (5.3%), recorded a result of
3.8% in imports in 2018, which gives it the seventh place among EU countries.
Italy, with 4.9% of exports, is also fourth in terms of imports (6.4%). A
similar situation can be observed in the case of France, which ranks fifth in
both exports and imports, with the results of 4.5 and 4.2%, respectively. The
Netherlands, with a 4.5% share in exports, ranks fifth, like France, while
being in the top three importers of cargo in the EU in 2018 (6.8%). The United
Kingdom ranked sixth in exports (4.0%), has a small share in the imports of
cargo in the EU (1.7%). The seventh-largest transport of exported cargo is
occupied by Hungary (3.5%), reaching 3.9% in imports. Lithuania, which obtained
3.4% in exports, recorded one percentage point less in the share of imports in
the EU in 2018. Belgium was ninth in exports and eighth in imports, reaching
3.2 and 3.8%, respectively.
Fig. 2. Trade in
cargo in transport companies in
individual EU countries in 2008 and 2015
Source:
Authors’ research based on data presented in [12]
|
Fig. 3.
The structure of transport of cargo imported in individual EU countries in
2018 Source:
Authors’ research based on [12] |
Fig. 4.
The structure of transport of cargo exported in individual EU countries in
2018 Source:
Authors’ research based on [12] |
Figures 5
and 6 show the share of individual modes of transport in intermodal cargo
transport in 2008 and 2018. It can be noted that in 2008, road transport had
the largest share in cargo transport in Poland (80.89%) compared to other means
of transport. The second most popular means of transporting cargo in 2008 was
rail transport (15.03%). Then, the shares of individual forms of transport were
successive: pipeline transport – 1.92%, inland shipping – 0.63%,
sea shipping – 2.96%. In 2018, there was an increase in the transport of
cargo by road (up to 85.50%), in favour of a decrease in the share of cargo
transported by other means of transport: rail, inland, and sea transport, which
in 2018 amounted to (11.40, 0.20, and 0.40%). It can therefore be concluded
that there was a significant increase in the share of cargo transport by road
in Poland from 2008-2018, which indicates a significant development of this
mode of transport.
|
Fig. 5.
The share of individual modes of transport in international cargo transport
in Poland in 2008 Source:
Authors’ research based on [12] |
Fig. 6.
The share of individual modes of transport in international cargo transport
in Poland in 2018 Source:
Authors’ research based on [12] |
3. FORECAST OF THE NUMBER OF CARGO TRANSPORT
IN POLAND
The method
of seasonality indicators was used to forecast the volume of cargo transported
by road in Poland from 2019-2021. The analysis presented in this paper is based
on data for 2008-2018 obtained from the Central Statistical Office database [12].
Additionally, the forecast values for 2019 and 2020 were compared with the real
values for 2019 and
(1)
(2)
where:
- constant coefficient;
- model parameter;
T
- time variable;
- seasonal fluctuations in the additive
model;
- seasonal fluctuations in the
multiplicative model.
Table 1
presents the volume of cargo transported by road in Poland in particular
quarters from 2008-2018. Afterwards, a regression analysis of the ordered data
presented in Table 1 was performed. The value of the coefficient of
determination R2 = 0.92, while the p-values for the coefficients in
the model are less than 0.05. Therefore, it can be concluded that the choice of
the seasonality method was correct as the models were well adjusted to the
statistical data.
Tab. 1
The number of cargo
transported by road in Poland in the individual quarters of 2008-2018
Source:
Authors’ research based on [12]
|
Year |
Quarter |
Number of transported
cargo [million in tonne kilometres] |
t |
|
2008 |
I |
41 390 |
1 |
|
II |
44 034 |
2 |
|
|
III |
42 254 |
3 |
|
|
IV |
37 252 |
4 |
|
|
2009 |
I |
42 755 |
5 |
|
II |
45 400 |
6 |
|
|
III |
48 087 |
7 |
|
|
IV |
44 500 |
8 |
|
|
2010 |
I |
45 790 |
9 |
|
II |
51 590 |
10 |
|
|
III |
55 201 |
11 |
|
|
IV |
55 201 |
12 |
|
|
2011 |
I |
50 581 |
13 |
|
II |
52 864 |
14 |
|
|
III |
51 794 |
15 |
|
|
IV |
52 412 |
16 |
|
|
2012 |
I |
53 061 |
17 |
|
II |
57 147 |
18 |
|
|
III |
57 652 |
19 |
|
|
IV |
54 472 |
20 |
|
|
2013 |
I |
57 036 |
21 |
|
II |
65 340 |
22 |
|
|
III |
64 602 |
23 |
|
|
IV |
60 616 |
24 |
|
|
2014 |
I |
61 362 |
25 |
|
II |
62 808 |
26 |
|
|
III |
63 343 |
27 |
|
|
IV |
63 417 |
28 |
|
|
2015 |
I |
63 257 |
29 |
|
II |
67 680 |
30 |
|
|
III |
65 129 |
31 |
|
|
IV |
64 647 |
32 |
|
|
2016 |
I |
71 195 |
33 |
|
II |
77 300 |
34 |
|
|
III |
71 533 |
35 |
|
|
IV |
70 721 |
36 |
|
|
2017 |
I |
76 809 |
37 |
|
II |
84 916 |
38 |
|
|
III |
86 055 |
39 |
|
|
IV |
87 440 |
40 |
|
|
2018 |
I |
77 946 |
41 |
|
II |
83 132 |
42 |
|
|
III |
77 624 |
43 |
|
|
IV |
77 172 |
44 |
The next
stage of the analysis was the determination of raw absolute seasonal
fluctuations for individual quarters. Then the seasonal component was adjusted
by determining pure absolute seasonal fluctuations. Table 2 shows obtained
forecasting models.
Tab. 2
The obtained forecasting models based on the years 2008-2018
|
Quarter |
Additive model |
Multiplicative model |
|
I |
|
|
|
II |
|
|
|
III |
|
|
|
IV |
|
|
The
results of the forecast of the number of cargo transported by road in the
particular quarters of 2019, 2020, and 2021 along with the values of the real
number of cargo transported by road in 2019 and 2020 are presented in Table 3.
Tab. 3
The forecast results for 2019, 2020, and 2021 with the
real data for 2019
|
Year |
Quarter |
Number of transported cargo
[million in tonne kilometres] |
T |
||
|
Additive model |
Multiplicative model |
Real data |
|||
|
2019 |
I |
85 951 |
85 904 |
85 395 |
45 |
|
II |
90 311 |
91 149 |
86 666 |
46 |
|
|
III |
82 301 |
82 831 |
90 867 |
47 |
|
|
IV |
81 016 |
80 341 |
86 026 |
48 |
|
|
2020 |
I |
89 932 |
90 004 |
95 753 |
49 |
|
II |
94 292 |
95 448 |
79 710 |
50 |
|
|
III |
86 282 |
86 692 |
- |
51 |
|
|
IV |
84 997 |
84 042 |
- |
52 |
|
|
2021 |
I |
93 912 |
94 104 |
- |
53 |
|
II |
98 272 |
99 747 |
- |
54 |
|
|
III |
90 263 |
90 553 |
- |
55 |
|
|
IV |
88 977 |
87 744 |
- |
56 |
|
Figure 7
shows the number of cargo transported by road, real and forecast values for
2019-2021 using the additive and multiplicative model. Based on the presented
data, it can be observed that the forecasted values obtained from the additive
model are at a similar level to the values for 2008-2018. However, the
forecasted values using the multiplicative model are linear, which is not
consistent with the real values for 2019. Comparing the forecasted values with
the real values, it can be seen that in the case of the first two quarters of
2019 and the first quarter of 2020, the forecast may be accurate. However, in
the case of the third and fourth quarters of 2019, the values already differ
significantly. The lack of data for
Fig.
7. The number of cargo transported by road in
particular periods from 2008-
Source: Authors’ research based
on data presented in [12]
4. CONCLUSION
This article aimed to analyse
international road cargo transport in Poland and EU countries from 2008-2018.
Based on the analysis, the following conclusions can be drawn:
·
The number of employees employed in transport
companies in EU countries decreased by about 40% during the analysed period.
The reason for the decline in the number of employees may be the technological
development that took place in these countries over the last dozen years, which
contributed to the elimination of a certain part of the employees;
·
In
Poland, there was a significant increase in the share of road cargo transport
from 2008-2018, indicating a significant development of road cargo transport;
·
The
forecasted values of the volume of cargo transport in Poland for 2019-2021,
which were determined from the additive and multiplicative model, are at a
similar level to the values for 2008-2018;
·
A
comparison of the forecasted values with the real values for 2019 shows that
the forecast for the first two quarters is correct. To confirm the correctness
of the forecast for the third and fourth quarters, it would be necessary to
compare the data for the following years, which will be possible only after the
Central Statistical Office provides data for the years 2020 and 2021. However,
the COVID-19 pandemic situation that occurred in 2020 probably largely
influenced the volume of road cargo transport.
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Received 30.10.2020; accepted in revised form 12.01.2021
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Journal of Silesian University of Technology. Series Transport is licensed
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