Article
citation information:
Hart, E.C., Adebiyi, S.O., Oyenuga,
O.G. Prioritisation
of ferry commuters’ needs in Lagos metropolis: an analytical hierarchical
process approach. Scientific Journal of
Silesian University of Technology. Series Transport. 2020, 107, 53-71. ISSN: 0209-3324. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20858/sjsutst.2020.107.4.
Eke Christy HART[1], Sulaimon Olanrewaju ADEBIYI[2], Olamilekan Gbenga OYENUGA[3]
PRIORITISATION
OF FERRY COMMUTERS’ NEEDS IN LAGOS METROPOLIS: AN ANALYTICAL HIERARCHICAL
PROCESS APPROACH
Summary. Understanding the needs of ferry service commuters
cannot be overemphasis, considering the fact that the survival of any business
largely depends on the volume of its customer base, and how well they are
satisfied with the level of services received. More so, owing to the high
population of Lagos state and usual traffic congestion across main roads during
the peak periods, water transportation via ferries undoubtedly becomes a viable
alternative to ensure stakeholders satisfaction in urban planning for a city
majorly surrounded by water providers. Thus, this study employs the analytical
hierarchy process (AHP) to prioritise the ferry services needs of commuters to
make effective managerial decisions that will aid efficiency in their operations,
thereby, increasing the market penetration, competitive edge and commuter
satisfaction. A sample size of two hundred and four was computed through
purposive sampling procedure. The data retrieved were analysed using pairwise
comparison in line with AHP methodology. The study found out that among the
criteria measured, comfort was perceived more important to commuters compared
to its pairs. In addition, recreational facilities, ease of online payment,
regular maintenance of waterways and seating with good legroom were ranked high
by the commuters. Therefore, to ensure a sustainable competitive advantage over
other modes of transportation, these indicators need to be effectively
considered in water transportation policy.
Keywords: AHP, transportation, commuter, ferry service,
jetty, Lagos
1. INTRODUCTION
Understanding the needs of commuters that use ferry
services in a cosmopolitan city with high-level traffic congestion is one of
the first steps in working out how best to ensure better inter-modal transport
for efficient movement in a megacity. Furthermore, prioritising these
commuters’ needs and tackling them systematically will bring expansion
and economic growth to the industry or sector and to the state and the nation
at large.
Although commuter assessment of a service depends on the
balance between sacrifices and benefits, both monetary and non-monetary.
Sacrifices and benefits are moderated by the commuter’s tastes and
characteristics. The needs of individual commuters are important determinants
of the level of satisfaction [16], the customer’s experience [7] and of
repurchase intentions [12].
Traffic congestion experienced in Lagos metropolis daily
have advanced into so much delay and inconsistent journeyed times, extreme loss
of energy and loss of bona fide man hour, hence, the need to fully harness the
potentials of water transportation via ferries serving as a complement and
substitute mode to road transportation has become compelling [14]. It is this
convincing need that made the researchers embark on ascertaining and
prioritising the need for commuters using ferry service. Although Lagos is
blessed with rivers and lagoon that permeate deep into the mainland, water
transportation is still grossly underutilised by the commuting public. A vast
majority of the population still depend on road transport to carry out their
daily activities, the consequence is that most times, a journey that would
normally take 30 minutes, lasts for as much as 4 to 6 hours. The manpower loss
in traffic is quite enormous with the economy of the individual at the
receiving end.
However, some commuters still patronise local boats
especially those living in the riverine areas of the city. These corporate
passengers/commuters have four main operators that move passengers in and out
of the island to the mainland on a daily basis. Comparatively, the capacity of
ferries plying the routes is far less than the population of Lagos which has
been estimated to be 20 million people [9] and projected to triple this figure
by 2050.
This service is meant to meet the following needs among
others;
- having
accessible jetties and port for embarkation and debarkation of commuters in the
metropolis,
- affordable
fare comparable to other modes of transportation within the city,
- comfort
and good ambience,
- safety
and security,
- speed.
All these needs involve satisfying multiple objectives.
Prioritising them, a common approach to use is the analytic
hierarchy process (AHP) technique developed by [18]. AHP uses a multi-level
hierarchical structure of objectives, criteria, sub-criteria, and alternatives,
where the goal is at the top of the hierarchy, followed by the criteria and
sub-criteria (if required), and finally, the alternatives occupy the lowest
level. It uses pairwise comparison to determine the relative importance of each
alternative in terms of each criterion. Using Saaty’s scale of relative
importance, the alternatives are compared in two’s with respect to each
criterion to generate a matrix of performance values known as judgement matrix
for each criterion. Similar comparisons are made for the criteria with respect
to the overall goal. Finally, priority vectors from each judgement matrix are
combined to form the decision matrix from which the final priority vector is
obtained. The final priority vector ranks the alternatives from the most
suitable alternative to the least suitable one.
Many studies have been conducted on customer’s
satisfaction, the safety of commuters and boat, and the safe operating speed of
the ferry, however, to the best of our knowledge, very little or no work has
been done in the area of prioritising these needs. This study adds to the
existing literature on this subject matter while exploring the peculiarities of
the ferry operations as an alternative means of transportation. The intention
is to adopt a systematic way of prioritising commuters’ need and meeting
them as well. Two major routes: Victoria Island to Ojo through Mile 2, Victoria
Island to Ikorodu were selected for case studies.
A report by the Building Nigeria’s Response to
Climate Change [5], states that Lagos state has a significant accumulation of
water and marshland of over 40% of its entire land area and extra 12% prone to
regular submerging by a flood. The waterside areas comprise of lagoons, creeks
and swamps segregated from the open sea by a strip of sandy land that varies in
width from two to sixteen kilometres. Thus, the state consists of various
islands (Victoria Island and the continuations, Ikoyi, Apapa and some parts of
Amuwo-Odofin) which are linked by bridges to the mainland.
Despite this, a greater majority of the inhabitants do not
subscribe to water transport as a substitute to road transportation. Moving
from one part of the city to the other is habitually an unpleasant experience
due to the high population of individuals resident in the state. A transition
that usually should take 35 minutes takes as much as 4 to 6 hours on a rainy
day. Therefore, it has become imperative to state that a city of this size
cannot survive on only one major mode of transportation.
A lot of establishments at
various times have ventured to solve this problem by investing enormously into
medium size ferries, however, they could not continue with the business after
some years and some were even liquidated. An understanding of the needs facing
the ferry services commuters, as well as adequate prioritisation of these
needs, will help investors and government agencies in Lagos fully grasp the
situation and address them in a systematic manner. This necessitates this study.
The aim of this study is to
ascertain and prioritise the needs of the ferry services commuters in the Lagos
Metropolis using AHP to help stakeholders tackle these needs systematically.
Therefore, the specific objectives are to:
(i)
ascertain the needs of ferry service
commuters in the Lagos metropolis,
(ii)
prioritise the commuters’ needs
of ferry services using AHP,
(iii)
determine appropriate strategies
towards meeting ferry commuters needs for improving patronage.
This study analyses the needs
that affect the commuters in using ferries optimally, thereby, preferring it to
road mode of transportation, it gives insight on how prioritising them using
AHP will aid resolving means of these needs. Therefore, it strengthens our
knowledge of driven existing research challenges in water transportation. Thus,
opening a new scope in the study of the subject matter.
In addition, experts and
practitioners such as river engineers stand to gain from the result of this
study. This is because this study exposes how to engage them in the waterway,
as they channelise and dredge the ferry route. Thereby, enhancing the safety of
boats on different routes.
Finally, this study will be
beneficial to the Lagos State Government, especially Lagos State Ferry Services
Corporation (LFSC), Lagos State Waterways Authority (LASWA) and other firms who
rely on water transportation to render their services. It is of utmost
importance as it sheds light on the major needs of ferry service commuters,
which are the main reasons for operating ferry services in a commercial city
like Lagos. Many organisations today are interested in expanding their
businesses into this area, therefore, knowing the needs of the commuters and
the abundant untapped opportunities underneath will help them explore.
Importantly, it will help in providing a solution to humanity’s problem
and expand the body of knowledge.
Review of the water transportation system in the Lagos Metropolis Water covers over 25% of the land space in Lagos state, as
a result, the recognition of water transport is as an alternative way of
transiting both human, goods and services from one location of the city to
another dates back to centuries. Conventionally wooden boats driven by paddles
made from wood and bamboo sticks are seen in the lagoon and rivers. Small
outboards petrol engines (25 to 40Hp) is gradually phasing out the paddles and
bamboo sticks in moving personnel and goods faster to their various places of
embarkation and debarkation.
Though Lagos State Ferry Services started operations in
1925 [10], the patronage of this means of transport over time has not been
encouraging especially when compared to the population growth in the city and
movement of people within the city via road transportation. Water
transportation is rather associated with a certain tribe (Ijaw), who by reason
of place of birth are known to be at home with the water. At a young age,
children from this tribe are taught how to swim and learn various survival
techniques in water. Other tribes are indifferent to swimming, consequently
developing a phobia for water, and subsequently, neglect this means of
transportation.
When the civil war ended in 1970, lots of marketable
centres came up inside the Lagos Island and the traffic situation between the
island and mainland worsened, thus, Lagferry was established in 1983. This
ferry services provided a shift from the old wooden boats to a more cooperate
outfit targeting the middle class. The issue of safety and security was taken
more seriously; life vest was mandatory for all commuters boarding the ferry at
the point of embarkation. Coast guards also became visible in the lagoon and
these became a confidence booster in this sector till date.
Ferry services
Ferry service connects two shores usually to meet the needs
of the people. Therefore, ferry service involves the movement of people and
goods from one shore location to another shore location by water. Hence, every
ferry service is a market of demand and supply onto itself. There are peak and
off-peak periods during the day. The peak periods are the rush hours of the
morning and evening, while the off-peak period is between late morning and
early afternoon (between hours of 1000 and 1500Hrs). At this period, workers
and business/traders are in their offices and shops. Weekends are particularly
off-peak periods.
Lagferry or Lagos State Ferry Services Corporation is the
main ferry provider within the metropolis, her operation started in 1925 [8].
Although most of their fleet is either broken-down or laid-up, they are still
visible in the water space. Lately, other operators are making a good incursion
into this sector. They include:
- metro
ferry,
- sea
Coach Express,
- texas
Connection.
These operators present good corporate brands that are
attractive to the working class and other corporate business executives.
The following government agencies regulate operations in
the sector:
- NIWA
– National Inland Waterways Authority,
- NIMASA
– Nigeria Maritime Administration and Safety Agency,
- LASWA
– Lagos State Waterways Authority.
Actors and stakeholders
Actors and stakeholders play active roles, shape
development and expansion and competition. They include the following:
- government agencies,
- operators,
- commuters and the general public.
Government agencies: Under the transport ministry, the
government provides guidelines to regulate this sector. The ministry controls
waterways and has the responsibility of dredging, wreck removal and clearing of
the channels at regular intervals. They also build and manage ports/jetties and
places of embarkation and debarkation.
These ministries conduct their businesses through the
following agencies:
(i)
to encourage and grow private sector
venture and involvement in the running and control of the resources of the
National Inland Waterways Authority;
(ii)
to plan for the safety and security
guidelines of the National Inland Waterways;
(iii)
to plan a substitute means of carriage
for the movement of commodities and people, and put in practice the National
Transport rules as it concerns the National Inland Waterways in Nigeria.
- Nigeria
Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA): It was created to inspire
local companies to boost maximum volume. The mandate of the agency is to
confirm that vessels for shore and local trade be constructed in Nigeria,
possessed by Nigerians, operated by Nigerians and be listed in Nigeria.
Ferry service operators
Tab.1
Companies that operate ferries in Lagos metropolis [10]
|
S/N |
Company |
Incorporated |
Number fleet |
Routes/Service |
|
01 |
Texas Connection Ferries Ltd |
2001 |
Not known, company have different sizes of ferries. |
Corporate charter services to
companies and individuals to different destination across the lagoon from the
Island |
|
02 |
Metro Ferry (Private limited liability company) |
2008 |
18 |
Metro Ferry plies Ebute-Ero to CMS down to Folomo under
bridge and Addax jetty, VI to Mile 2 |
|
03 |
Sea Coach Express |
2015 |
10 |
Sea Coach Express plies Ikorodu to outer Marina during
the morning and evenings rush hoursand shuttles between CMS outer Marina and
Apapa during the day |
|
04 |
Lagos State Ferry Services (owned by the State
government) |
2008 |
Not known, between 10 and 20 |
Lagos State Ferry Services plies Ikorodu to outer Marina
during the morning and evenings rush hours, and shuttles between CMS outer
Marina and Apapa during the day |
Commuters and the general public
With a population approximated at 20 million residents, the
Lagos state government estimates that over 6 million commute every day. The
strategy is to encourage approximately 2 million of these commuters to use
waterways to decongest the road. For this research work, the focus is on the
middle class because these strata are willing to pay a little more to have time
provided safety and comfort guaranteed.
Analytic hierarchy process
“Reference [17]” human daily life is scheduled
with numerous decisions making which most times possess multiple conflicting
interests. Thus, the need for prioritisation is of high importance in every
decision scenario. Moreover, life and business challenges requiring human
judgment and perceptions and with long term effect calls for a rational
technique to solving them. To solve such a problem, there is a need to juggle
various factors which might require a reasonable amount of time and resources.
In practice, the time allowed for decisionmakers in solving high risks and
long-term effect decisions in today’s dynamic and uncertain world is
limited. There is a need for a better analytic technique for solving such
challenges.
The Analytic hierarchy process, popularly known as AHP, is
one of the most famous methods for making multi-criteria decisions. It was
developed to assist with optimisation of decision making when faced with a
number of quantitative and qualitative factors.
“Reference [4]”, AHP was developed by T.L.
Saaty, while directing research projects in the US Arms Control and Disarmament
Agency. It was developed to help solve complex decision-making problems. The
simplicity and power of the AHP have led to its use in business, government,
research and development, defence, telecommunication, etc. [2].
AHP employs the verdict of decision makers to arrange a
breakdown of problems into hierarchies. Problem complication is characterised
by the number of stages in the hierarchy which syndicates with the
decision-maker’s model of the problem to be solved. The hierarchy is
utilised to originate ratio-scaled measures for decision alternatives and the
comparative value that alternatives have against the study goals prioritising
the commuters needs and the criteria (Jetty facilities, Fare, Safety and
security and Comfort). AHP practises the use of pairwise matrix comparison to
categorise factors to attain a mathematically ideal result. AHP is a
time-tested technique that has been utilised in billion-dollar decisions. AHP
is used typically in the following applications:
- prioritising
the factors and requirements that impact in software development and productivity,
- helps
in making choices among several options for improving safety features in motor
vehicle manufacturing,
- assist
in establishing cost and options for scheduling material requirements planning
(MRP),
- in the
software industry, it is used for vendor management to select the right vendor
for the right component.
There exist, three major concepts in AHP, they include:
- the
analytic nature of AHP:
AHP employs a logical and mathematical
approach to decision making. It helps decision makers in placing the decision
problem on a logical format, converting decision-makers’ intuition and
feelings into a numerical form which can be easily assessed and explained,
- the
hierarchical structure of AHP:
AHP decomposes complex problem into
sub-problems. This assists decision makers to be able to solve the complex
problem. Thus, to deal with enormous and complex decision-making problem, it is
necessary to break it into levels called hierarchy,
- the
process nature of AHP:
AHP takes decision making in
processes. Process-driven decision making takes into consideration, the
evolution of the decision in a step by step approach.
Procedure for using AHP and its application
“Reference [10]” gave the following procedure
for AHP.
Step 1: The first step in analysing AHP problems is to break the goal or
objective, into hierarchical structure or grading, which comprises of criteria,
sub-criteria (if any) and alternatives. In Fig. 1, the goal is to prioritise
the ferry services needs of commuters in Lagos Metropolis, it sits on the top
and defines clearly what the problem is. The criteria are available jetty
facilities, affordable fare, safety/security and comfort. The sub-criteria are
as shown directly under the criteria.
Step 2: Data collected from the questionnaire are subjected to pairwise
comparison in matrix form of alternatives on a scale of degree of importance
starting from 2 to 9. 1 is equally important between the two alternatives.
While 2 is equally to moderately important and 9 is extremely important.
Step 3: The pairwise comparisons of several measure or criteria created
at step 2 are arranged into a square matrix. The diagonal rudiments or
components of the matrix are 1. The measure (criterion) in the ith
row is better than measure in the jth column if the worth of the
component (rudiment) (i, j) is more than 1; if not, the measure in the jth
column is better than that in the ith row. The (j, i) component of
the matrix is the reciprocal of the (i, j) component.
Step 4: The primary eigenvalue and the conforming normalised right
eigenvector of the evaluation matrix gives the comparative importance of
several measures or criteria being compared. The components of the normalised
eigenvector are called weights with regard to the measure (criteria) or
sub-criteria and ratings with regard to the alternatives.
Step 5: The uniformity of the matrix of order n is estimated. Judgments
made by this method are subjective and the AHP tolerates inconsistency through
the amount of redundancy in the approach. If this consistency index fails to
range a required level then responses to evaluate may be re-examined. The
consistency index (CI) is analysed as CI
=(λmax -n)/(n-1)
where 𝜆max is
the maximum eigenvalue of the decision matrix. This CI can be compared with
that of a random matrix (RI). The ratio obtained, CI/RI, is called the
consistency ratio (CR). Saaty recommends the value of CR should be less than
10%.
Step 6: The grading of each alternative is multiplied by the weights of
the sub-criteria and accumulated to obtain local ranking with respect to each
measure (criterion). The local rankings are then multiplied by the weights of
the measures (criteria) and accumulated to obtain comprehensive ranking.
The AHP generates weightiness of values for one-to-one
alternative centred on the estimated ranking of one alternative over another
with respect to a shared measure.
AHP has enjoyed application in several fields of human endeavour,
amongst which are ranking, choice, prioritisation/evaluation, resource
allocation, benchmarking, quality management, public policy, health care and
strategic planning.
Research conceptual model – X-ray commuter needs
Lagos is a megacity with a population close to 20 million,
which has an imperative need for an efficient means of moving people from one
end of the metropolis to the other. Over the years, the only means of
transportation is the road, which the government has invested heavily on as an
infrastructure. After the Nigerian civil war, most people migrated from
villages to urban centres to start life afresh. Lagos as the commercial nerve
centre of Nigeria became one of the first points of such migration.
Consequently, this stretched the available infrastructures to its limit. The
road was badly hit as the traffic bottleneck (go slow as it is called in Lagos)
became a normal feature on the roads.
Successive governments have always looked at ways to solve
the traffic situation in Lagos, right from when Lagos was the capital of
Nigeria. One of the ways is the use of waterways as a viable alternative to the
road to commute people and goods from one end of the city to the other. When
this means is effectively utilised, it is expected that over 30% of the
commuters would patronise the ferry services, thereby, decongesting the roads.
Maslow hierarchy of need was used as a tool to X-ray the
needs of the commuters. The needs are broken down into the following
sub-headings:
- availability
of jetties with its facilities,
- reasonable
fare,
- safety
and security,
- comfort.
The aim of this study was to identify the reasons the
majority of Lagosians do not patronise water transportation despite its
economic potentials. Furthermore, what can be done better to make it
attractive, thereby reducing the heavy traffic gridlock on Lagos roads which
has brought so much loss in man-hour. The listings below provide clues to why
the potential is untapped, we foresee more commuters being attracted to this mode
of transportation when they are put in place or systematically implemented with
an evident increment in the use of ferries.
Available jetties with its facilities
Jetties are places of embarkation and debarkation for
passengers and goods for ferries. Lagos is blessed with rivers and a lagoon
that penetrates right into the mainland, providing a good spread to make water
transportation accessible to the populace. “Reference [3]” states
that the Lagos lagoon covers a total area of about 426.0 km2 with a
coastline and inland waterways; it reaches an average depth of about 1.6 m
throughout the year with negligible or insignificant variations, thus, making
the rivers and lagoons navigable. On the west of the lagoon (south-west of the
harbour), there are several creeks; Lighthouse creek, Ologe lagoon and Badagry
creek, the main waterway leading to Badagry (Port Novo and Cotonou). Another
creek joining the southern part of the main Lagos lagoon to the Atlantic Ocean
through Victoria Island is called Five Cowries Creek. The North East of the
lagoon is bounded by the Ikorodu local port that leads to Epe. In addition, at
that region, there are several inlets from the Ogun River, Majidun River and
Agboyi creek. A sub-lagoon of the Lagos lagoon lies to the east of the harbour
bound, and the bar beach between the Atlantic Ocean and the lagoon is called
the Kuramo waters.
However, Lagos can only boast of about 59 jetties (most
unfunctional). Should the government keep their promises by completing the 8
additional jetties by the end of the administration that ends in 2019, the
total number will increase to 67, which is still grossly inadequate compared to
the size of the population.
To make water a viable alternative to road, jetties must be
accessible to commuters and have facilities like car pack, restaurants,
recreational facilities, ATMs and shopping centres. Furthermore, there is need
for investment in the construction of over 50 additional jetties with modern
facilities and 100 embarkation and debarkation points along the rivers and
lagoons for ease of pick-ups and drop-offs along the waterway. The embarkation
and debarkation points may not necessarily have the aforementioned facilities,
rather they will serve as stops to commuters; as bus stops serve to road users
[20].
Additionally, having more jetties in the creeks, lagoons
and islands would make them easily accessible.
Reasonable fare
Commuters expect value for their money. Time is money, this
is the main attraction water transport has over the road. Commuters can predict
their transit time, unlike the road where a journey meant for 30 minutes can go
for as long as 4 to 6 hours. As a result, commuters in most cases are ready to
pay a premium to have this service.
Incentive theory of motivation posits that actions are
induced by the desire towards gaining rewards. Operators, therefore, create
incentives and reward systems for loyal customers. For instance, operators
could announce the incentive of buy two tickets and get one free, buy bloc
thick for a month and use the service for an uncountable number of times within
the month at no additional charge.
In addition, online ticketing and cashless transaction is
convenient to commuters and create the flexibility of allowing them to plan
their journeys well in advance. All of these are not optimally employed within
the current mode.
Safety and security
Self-survival is man’s number one instinct. No normal
person will put himself/herself in any kind of danger. Consequently, commuters
will comfortably utilise this mode of transportation if there is some form of
assurance that the waterways are safe and secured with supportive measures to
support in case of natural disasters. Availability of the following could serve
as confidence builders:
- availability
of coast guards for rescue operations along the waterways,
- availability
of adequate life vest for all passengers,
- good
maintenance record by operators and availability of spares,
- adequate
maintenance and dredging of the waterways,
- low
incidence of avoidable accidents on the waterways.
Comfort
The targeted middle class and business executives are
disposed to pay a little bit more provided the service is convenient and offers
some level of comfort. This starts from access to the jetty, facilities
available at the jetty, the ferry itself, considerable ambience, courteousness
of the crews, tidiness and reception, onboard entertainment, and so on.
All these put together will attract and bond the commuters
to water transport, thus, increase patronage and meet overall government objectives.
Empirical review
The procedure of deciding the relative importance, urgency
or position of a thing(s) cannot be overemphasis in any organisation or sector.
Hence, the prioritisation of factors and criteria to attract the patronage of
commuters (consumers) have weighty effects globally.
Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is one of the
multi-criteria decision making methods originally developed by Prof Thomas
Saaty that has proven effective in providing measures of judgement consistency
and deriving priorities among criteria and alternatives. Moreover, it
simplifies preference ratings among decision criteria using pairwise
comparisons.
“Reference [6]” in their research work of
prioritisation of human capital measurement indicators in Turkey employed the
application of AHP and fuzzy logic known as Fuzzy AHP to improve the quality of
human capital achieved by considering within the model, five main attributes;
talent, strategical integration, cultural relevance, knowledge management, and
leadership; their sub-attributes, and 20 indicators are defined. The result of
the study conclusively indicated that ‘creating subsequent results by
using knowledge, employee skill index, sharing and reporting knowledge and
succession rate of training programs are the four most important. In addition,
“Reference [11]” applied fuzzy multi-criteria decision making
technique to assess the service quality of ferry services in Malaysia, and it
was discovered that as satisfied as commuters are with ferry service
performance, ferry personnel service performance ranks better compare to ferry
service in handling delay. Thus, the delay handling process was highlighted for
improvement. While, “Reference [8]” examined service performance of
ferry in the Sabang zone, Indonesia, with the aid of Cartesian graph. It was
found that irrespective of the pass mark ascribe to service delivery, the need
for improvement in areas such as notification of delay, employees’
technical know-how, employees’ complaint management, on-time service
performance, security, and reliability are of high importance. In the same
vein, “Reference [15]” observed the indicators that influence
commuters’ selection process of ferry service operators in Greece and it
was found that commuters’ choice was heavily dependent on perceived
service quality, price, and convenience. Whereas, among the selected service
criteria measured by [13], it was found that travel speed, on-time performance,
and service frequency sub-elements of core service attributes were of high
importance and aid satisfaction to commuters compared to vehicle tidiness and
safety on board.
“Reference [1]” used the analytical pairwise
comparison procedure to rank the human capital indicator in Malaysia. AHP was
employed to integrate the multi-facets preferences of the five criteria of
human capital to determine the importance of the four identified.
“Reference [1]” showed from their result that creating result by
using knowledge is the most important measurement indicator, while employee
skill index is the least important.
The Analytical hierarchy process was utilised in selecting
and prioritising projects in a portfolio. “Reference [17]” in their
work presented, discussed and applied the principles and techniques of AHP in
the prioritisation and selection of projects in a portfolio by considering the
projects under the two subheadings of possible definitions of low cost and
possible definitions of high benefits, which forms part of the criteria for
prioritisation and possible inconsistencies were determined too. Therefore, in
this research work, the process of AHP was applied on a step by step basis to
prioritise the ferry services needs of the commuter in the Lagos metropolis,
which has four criteria: Jetty facilities, safety and security, fare and
comfort with fifteen alternatives.
3. RESEARCH METHODS
This study considered two
conscientious channels of focus for analysis. A correct mental comprehension of
the influence of activities and operations in these locations presents a clear
account of what transpires in other channels and locations. The two routes or
channels of interest are Victoria Island to Ojo through Mile 2 and Victoria
Island to Ikorodu. The rationale for their selection is because Victoria Island
captures the major transaction areas commuters’ move from, to the
farthermost part of the city- transiting to the West and East (Ojo through Mile
2 and Ikorodu, respectively) of the metropolis. This study was conducted on
randomly sampled ferry commuters within the Lagos metropolis and with the aid
of AHP, data gathered were scientifically analysed to generate the relative
importance of selected needs of ferry commuters within the Lagos axis. The
questionnaires administered were structured in the AHP format to aid
prioritisation of ferry commuters’ needs with a response based on the
fundamental ratio scale [6]. This is to help identify the preference level of
needs from the commuters’ standpoints. Thus, overall, 240 copies
questionnaires were deemed fit for analysis.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
A. To ease understanding of commuters’ relative
importance of ferry service within the Lagos metropolis, results were depicted
based on the study’s objectives in line with AHP procedure:
Step I: AHP model construction
The model was constructed in line with the basic
hierarchical structure of 3 levels (goal level, criteria level, and
alternatives level). The goal level contains the prioritisation of ferry
commuters’ service needs as the goal; the criteria level comprise of
constructs such as available jetties facilities, fare (cost), safety/security,
and comfort. While, the alternative level comprises of availability of parking
space, availability of conducive waiting lounge, a good access road to the
jetty, and recreational facility as sub-criteria to available jetty facilities;
while, affordable fare, availability of incentive and fare discount, and ease
to online payment as sub-criteria to cost/fare; and safety/security has regular
maintenance of waterway, availability of coastguards for rescue operations,
availability of life vest for passengers, and maintenance and spare available
as its sub-criteria. Whereas, ambience, seat with good legroom, availability of
onboard entertainment, and availability of onboard convenience serve as
sub-criteria of comfort.
Step II: Pairwise Comparison
Afterwards, commuters were asked to respond to pairwise
comparison questions representing one criterion against another with respect to
a control criterion. This was done to actualise the relative importance of
criterion within a sub-division of criteria and as determinants towards
commuters’ needs of ferry services. This comparison was completed using [18]
fundamental scale of 1-9, and the model comprise of 5 pairwise matrices for
commuters’ responses (Tab. 2). The individuals that completed pairwise
matrices were later grouped together through the computation of arithmetic mean
across all matrices to derive a unified pairwise comparison matrix for
analysis.
Tab. 2
Responses towards criteria with respect to goal
|
Commuters needs of ferry service |
JF |
F |
SS |
CM |
|
JF |
1
|
1
|
1/7 |
1/9 |
|
F |
1
|
1
|
1/7 |
1/5 |
|
SS |
7
|
7
|
1
|
1
|
|
CM |
9
|
5
|
1
|
1
|
|
Column Sum |
18
|
14
|
2 2/7 |
2 1/3 |
Fig. 1. AHP model
for prioritising the ferry service commuters’ needs in
the Lagos Metropolis
Step III: Consistency Measure
Finally, a Microsoft excel solver was utilised in computing
the consistency of commuters’ decision. Based on this, only a consistency
ratio of less than or equal to 0.10 or 10% was acceptable as suggested by [14],
however, if CR is greater than 10%, the need to revise the pair-wise
comparisons either on the suggestion of the analysis tool or the
researcher’s intuition is introduced. Thus, to measure consistency, the pairwise
matrix (Tab. 2) is first normalised (that is, each entry on the table is
added up along each column, then the entry is further divided by the respective
column sum). Then, the priority vector is calculated through the division of
the summed value of each entry along each row by the number of the entries on
the normalised table.
Further, the weighted sum matrix is generated through the
multiplication of each entry along the row on the pairwise matrix with the
respective priority vector. Thereafter, the weighted sum is divided by the
respective priority vector. In addition to computing the consistency ratio, the
result from the initial computation is then summed and divided by the number of
the entries to derive the Lambda max. Then, the consistency index and
consistency ratio are calculated based on the aforementioned formula in the
research method. Hence, Tab. 3 depicts the results of the consistency
measure for Tab. 2.
Tab. 3
Consistency measure
|
Normalisation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
JF |
F |
SS |
CM |
TOTAL |
WEIGHT |
AW |
AW/W |
LAMDA MAX |
RI |
CI |
CR |
|
JF |
0.055556 |
0.071429 |
0.0625 |
0.048077 |
0.237561 |
0.05939 |
0.239202 |
4.027626 |
4.032779 |
0.9 |
0.010926 |
0.01214 |
|
F |
0.055556 |
0.071429 |
0.0625 |
0.086538 |
0.276023 |
0.069006 |
0.277587 |
4.022671 |
|
|
|
|
|
SS |
0.388889 |
0.5 |
0.4375 |
0.432692 |
1.759081 |
0.43977 |
1.770375 |
4.025682 |
|
|
|
|
|
CM |
0.5 |
0.357143 |
0.4375 |
0.432692 |
1.727335 |
0.431834 |
1.751145 |
4.055136 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tab. 3 depicts the normalisation generated value, priority
vector (that is weights), the Lamda max of 4.032779, the consistency index of
0.010926 and the consistency ratio of 0.01214. Thus, based on the consistency
ratio value which is less than 10%, the commuter’s judgment can be said
to be consistent. Therefore, this is continually done to the other pairwise
matrix to generate the unified matrix to be tested for consistency.
Step IV: Synthesis
Lastly, based on the nature of the hierarchical structuring
of the research decision problem, the global priority is derived through the
multiplication of the local weight of both criteria and the alternative.
B.
Findings on research objectives
After the unification of the pairwise matrices, the
combined matrix is generated and final computation is actualised with weights
generated (that is, the priority vector which dictates the direction of
interpretation of results in relation to the objectives) and the consistency
ratio also derived to determine whether commuters’ judgment was
consistent.
Findings on criteria in relation to goal
Below is the combined pairwise matrix with its final computations
of results and priorities of criteria to the main goal of prioritisation of
commuters’ needs of ferry services.
Tab. 4
Combined final computation of weights and priority of
criteria to goal
|
Commuters’
needs of ferry services |
JF |
F |
SS |
CM |
WEIGHT |
AW |
AW/W |
LAMDA
MAX |
RI |
CI |
CR |
|
Jetty
Facilities (JF) |
1 |
1 1/7 |
1 |
1 |
0.253529 |
1.078095 |
4.252348 |
4.25229 |
0.9 |
0.084097 |
0.093441 |
|
Fare
(F) |
1 |
1 |
1 |
7/8 |
0.218132 |
0.927774 |
4.253274 |
|
|
|
|
|
Safety
and Security (SS) |
1 1/7 |
1 1/8 |
1 |
1 |
0.248362 |
1.057018 |
4.255964 |
|
|
|
|
|
Comfort
(CM) |
1 ¼ |
1 1/3 |
1 2/9 |
1 |
0.279977 |
1.189224 |
4.247575 |
|
|
|
|
|
Column
Sum |
4 1/3 |
4 5/8 |
4 1/4 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tab. 4 depicts that among the criteria, the need for
comfort was prioritised first by commuters to be of high importance with the
weight of 0.279977, that is, 28%, followed by jetty facilities 25%, and the
fare serving as the less important factor with a score of 22%. This result can
be said to be in corroboration with [15] observation of convenience as one of
the paramount indicators that influence passenger selection process of ferry
services but, negatively skewed when compared with [11] results on the
assessment of service quality of ferry services. However, the perception of
commuters’ towards fare as the less important factor neglects [15]
observation of price as an important factor.
Findings on alternatives in relation to criteria
Respectively, the combined pairwise matrices for
alternatives with respect to criteria were also computed and the final computations
of weights and priority, and consistency ratio were generated as shown in Tab.
5.
Tab. 5
Combined final computations of weights and priority vectors
of alternatives to criteria
|
Alternatives to Criteria |
|||||||||||
|
Jetty facilities |
APS |
ACWL |
GARJ |
RF |
WEIGHT |
AW |
AW/W |
LAMDA MAX |
RI |
CI |
CR |
|
APS |
1 |
1 1/9 |
8/9 |
1 |
0.231092 |
0.981368 |
4.246647 |
4.247409 |
0.9 |
0.08247 |
0.091633 |
|
ACWL |
1 1/6 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0.240615 |
1.021652 |
4.246005 |
|
|
|
|
|
GARJ |
1 2/9 |
1 1/8 |
1 |
1 1/7 |
0.264044 |
1.121468 |
4.247273 |
|
|
|
|
|
RF |
1 2/7 |
1 2/9 |
1 |
1 |
0.264248 |
1.12298 |
4.249712 |
|
|
|
|
|
Column Sum |
4 2/3 |
4 1/2 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cost |
AF |
AITD |
EOP |
WEIGHT |
AW |
AW/W |
LAMDA MAX |
RI |
CI |
CR |
|
|
AF |
1 |
1 1/5 |
1 |
0.34537 |
1.074907 |
3.112334 |
3.112945 |
0.58 |
0.056472 |
0.097366 |
|
|
AITD |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0.305252 |
0.950301 |
3.113169 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
EOP |
1 |
1 1/5 |
1 |
0.349378 |
1.08773 |
3.113332 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Column Sum |
3 |
3 2/5 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Safety/security |
RMW |
ACRO |
ALVP |
MSA |
WEIGHT |
AW |
AW/W |
LAMDA MAX |
RI |
CI |
CR |
|
RMW |
1 |
1 1/3 |
1 1/9 |
1 1/3 |
0.277427 |
1.170199 |
4.218045 |
4.218873 |
0.9 |
0.072958 |
0.081064 |
|
ACRO |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0.24032 |
1.013876 |
4.218862 |
|
|
|
|
|
ALVP |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 1/7 |
0.249639 |
1.053622 |
4.220585 |
|
|
|
|
|
MSA |
8/9 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0.232614 |
0.981168 |
4.217999 |
|
|
|
|
|
Column Sum |
3 5/6 |
4 1/3 |
4 1/5 |
4 5/9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Comfort |
AM |
SGL |
OEA |
OCA |
WEIGHT |
AW |
AW/W |
LAMDA MAX |
RI |
CI |
CR |
|
AM |
1 |
1 |
1 1/3 |
1 1/5 |
0.262663 |
1.116861 |
4.252072 |
4.254059 |
0.9 |
0.084686 |
0.094096 |
|
SGL |
1 1/6 |
1 |
1 4/9 |
1 |
0.272399 |
1.159711 |
4.257405 |
|
|
|
|
|
OEA |
8/9 |
8/9 |
1 |
8/9 |
0.216297 |
0.919163 |
4.249537 |
|
|
|
|
|
OCA |
1 |
1 |
1 1/3 |
1 |
0.248641 |
1.058522 |
4.257222 |
|
|
|
|
|
Column Sum |
4 |
3 5/6 |
5 1/9 |
4 1/5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tab. 5 results depict that from the jetty facility
criteria, availability of recreational facilities (RF) slightly edge over good
access road to the jetty (GARJ) with 0.02% to attain the most important need of
commuters from the angle of jetty facilities, while availability of parking
space was prescribed the less important. However, the nature of the result
shows the level of importance of all available needs.
Furthermore, observing the results of alternatives within
the cost/fare criteria, it can be detected that ease of online payment (EOP) is
ascribed more importance compared to other needs with a weight score of 34.94%.
This means that the need for user-friendly online payment by an average
commuter is of paramount need compared to other relevant needs of commuters,
while, availability of incentives and transport discount serves as less
important, which is 4% lesser than the most important need. However, previous
study conducted by [13] portrays low ranking for ticket-selling network and
price amid the observed criteria. This study’s judgment is consistent at
0.09% and the slight gap within the needs depicts how tightly important those
factors are. Likewise, under safety and security criteria, the commuters
perceived regular maintenance of waterways (RMW) as the most important need
among other needs with an ascribed weight of 27.74%. This is followed by
availability of life vest for all passengers (ALVP) and availability of
coastguards for rescue operations (ACRO) with 24.96 and 24.03%, respectively,
as presented in Tab. 4.
Finally, on the need for comfort, the commuters were of the
opinion that seating with good legroom (SGL) is of essential importance
compared to others perception of onboard entertainment as the last need from
ferry service with a weight of 21.63%.
Findings of global priority
Subsequently, after derivation of local weights for both
criteria and the alternatives, the final priority known also as the global
priority, is computed through the multiplication of local priorities of both
criteria and alternatives. Thus, Tab. 6 shows the result for the global
priority.
Tab. 6
Computation of global priority
|
Criteria local priority |
Alternative |
Local weight |
Global priority |
|
Jetty facilities 0.253529291 |
APS |
0.231092405 |
0.058589 |
|
ACWL |
0.24061486 |
0.061003 |
|
|
GARJ |
0.26404431 |
0.066943 |
|
|
RF |
0.264248425 |
0.066995 |
|
|
Fare/cost 0.21813181 |
AF |
0.345370002 |
0.075336 |
|
AITD |
0.305251949 |
0.066585 |
|
|
EOP |
0.349378049 |
0.07621 |
|
|
Safety and security 0.248361669 |
RMW |
0.27742687 |
0.068902 |
|
ACRO |
0.240319889 |
0.059686 |
|
|
ALVP |
0.249638752 |
0.062001 |
|
|
MSA |
0.23261449 |
0.057773 |
|
|
Comfort 0.279977231 |
AM |
0.262662803 |
0.07354 |
|
SGL |
0.272398571 |
0.076265 |
|
|
OEA |
0.21629725 |
0.060558 |
|
|
OCA |
0.248641376 |
0.069614 |
From Tab. 6, the result presents evenly distributed
relative weights of alternative. However, the commuters need for seating with
good legroom and ease to online payment, a sub-element of comfort and cost/fare
criteria ranks slightly higher compare to other criteria at 7.6%. Surprisingly,
the need for parking space, and maintenance and spare parts ranked lesser in
the mentioned order. Therefore, to an average operator of ferry service,
essential consideration need to be assigned to the following; seating with good
legroom, ease of online payment, affordable price, ambience, and onboard
convenience of which three of the alternative is attached to the comfort
criteria to provide itself with relevant strategies to outdo its competitors.
5.
CONCLUSIONS
After the holistic execution of this study, these relevant
conclusions were made:
i.
As criteria measuring commuters’ needs, availability of
comfort aids satisfaction compared to its pairs.
ii.
In addition, to facilitate commuters’ needs based on the
availability of jetty facilities, recreational facilities serve as the better
need for the average commuter.
iii. On
fare/cost alternatives, ease to online payment is of essential priority to
commuters compared to its group of alternatives.
iv. While,
on safety and the need for security, proper and regular maintenance of waterway
was perceived as more important.
v.
Being the most important need of commuters, comfort; availability
of seating with good legroom was given more depth of importance amid its pairs.
vi. Finally,
it can be inferred that to aid competitive sustainable advantage, ferry service
operators need to enhance their depth of service provision towards these
indicators; seating with good legroom, ease of online payment, affordable
price, ambience, and onboard convenience.
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Received 20.02.2020; accepted in revised form 29.04.2020
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