Article
citation information:
Kunikowski, G. From the taxonomy of
threats to the definition of energy security. Scientific Journal of Silesian University of Technology. Series
Transport. 2020, 106, 73-84.
ISSN: 0209-3324. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20858/sjsutst.2020.106.6.
Grzegorz KUNIKOWSKI[1]
FROM
THE TAXONOMY OF THREATS TO THE DEFINITION OF ENERGY SECURITY
Summary. In numerous definitions of energy security, an
approach, which emphasises the importance of continuity of supply dominates. It
takes into account the need for diversification and signals the necessity to
protect the environment and keep energy costs under control. Noticeably, energy
security is not only an issue of the state in strategic dimension, but it also
embraces the management issues that can be comprehensively described through a
classical, multi-level management approach using: strategic and operational
levels. Furthermore, security in the dimension of needs is a response to
threats. Therefore, the taxonomy of threats concerning the energy sector
facilities may be useful in defining energy security in terms of management.
This article is an attempt to define the features of energy security as a
response to threats, within strategic, operational and tactical dimensions. The
proposed herein approach aims to manage energy security in the scope of a
diagnosis, an assessment, and taking action, as well as monitoring the current
state.
Keywords: energy security, crisis
management, critical infrastructure
1. INTRODUCTION
The definition of energy
security in the Energy Law states that it is
the state of the economy that covers current and long-term demand for fuels and
energy in a technical and economically justified dimensions, while preserving
environmental protection requirements [27, art.3 pkt 16]. In the draft on Poland's Energy Policy until 2040,
an added explanation states that ... this
means current and future-oriented guaranteeing the security of raw materials
supply, generation, transmission and distribution, that is, a full energy chain
[18, 6]. In the author's opinion,
such a general definition is adequate for the strategic level of country policy
formulation in the 20-year forecast. It reflects essential elements of
security, that is, the importance of continuity of supply and future prospects
as well as consideration of technical, economic and environmental conditions.
It also confirms the complexity of the problem for which only a general
definition can be both concise and correct.
Energy security is a
multidimensional issue. The energy sector essentially includes companies from
the fuel and energy sectors, which deal with the supply of fossil fuels (oil,
gas and coal), their processing into energy, heat and transport fuels, and then
distribution to final consumers. Each of the functions: generation,
transmission and distribution is carried out according to the specification and
conditions that reflect the size of production, technical and technological
issues and logistics. Therefore, the detailed concept of energy security, understood
as covering the demand of consumers for fuels and energy, will likewise be more
diverse. Because the structural and organisational
complexity of the fuel and energy system overlaps with various threats and
risks, which for the security, seen from the perspective of dynamic processes,
are management challenges - from the national and administrative perspective.
The most important challenge is to ensure the effectiveness of activities that
limit the risks and minimise the effects of incidents
and crises. Security as a state of confidence and risk-free 2(p14) is associated with the elimination and reduction
of risks. It is natural to reach for risk management methodologies as well as
experiences and practices in the field of crisis management[2].
2. ENERGY SECURITY AND MANAGEMENT
In the model approach to
energy security presented in this article, which is based on hazard analysis,
one can differentiate a method of conduct depending on the level of assessment
and time perspective, indicating the strategic and operational levels[3].
In the energy sector,
the strategic level covers a time perspective exceeding 15 years. Nowadays, in
most areas of economic activity, such a long economic forecast is risky,
because of global economic and technological megatrends; the period of
strategic planning is gradually shortening. In the fuels and energy sector,
where costly technical infrastructure, whose life cycle is several dozen years,
it is essentially still common to plan for at least 15 years in advance. More
so, the governmental strategic documents are in principle related to plans for
a period exceeding 20 years [14], [18], [19] and in such a perspective, the
demand for fuels and energy as well as energy mix[4] are forecasted, the
strategic directions of the sector's development are indicated[5], including specific
investments, for example, new generation capacities, development of the nuclear
program, etc.
Management at the
operational level is characterised by a five-year
planning forecast. In addition to executing management responsibilities, the
problems of continuity of supply, contracting and maintenance of fuel reserves,
management of technical infrastructure, and forecasting of energy and fuel
demand are considered. Operational management from the perspective of an organisation, that is an enterprise, includes standard
management of current activities, including actions in a crisis response mode
when sudden disturbances occur.
The characteristics of
individual levels and examples of threats are presented in Tab. 1.
Tab.
1
Exemplary threats to the fuel and energy
sector in terms of management levels
|
Level |
Challenges |
Sample threats |
|
Strategic |
Energy and climate policy |
International commitments to reduce emissions The increase in energy prices caused by the implementation of decarbonisation |
|
Energy mix |
Increase in the costs of CO2 emission allowances Irrelevant choice of energy technologies |
|
|
Political investment decisions |
Increase in investment expenditures during implementation Delays in the implementation of the investment |
|
|
Operational |
Continuity of fuel supplies |
A regional conflict destabilising the region
of a fuel supplier |
|
Energy production |
Technical defect Weather phenomena |
|
|
Economic result |
Increase of own costs |
|
|
Operational (enterprises) |
Contracts |
The increase in fuel prices |
|
Administration |
An environmental requirement that involves investment |
|
|
Technique |
Technical failures, accidents |
The energy sector is one
of the most important critical infrastructure systems, that is, the system of
energy supply, energy raw materials and fuels. Critical infrastructure
operators in the scope of security arising from the provisions of the Act on
Crisis Management [28] and the National Critical Infrastructure Protection
Program [20], for which the Government Centre for Security is responsible, are
required to:
-
prepare and implement, in accordance with the anticipated threats, plans
for the protection of critical infrastructure and maintenance of own reserve
systems, ensuring security and maintaining the functioning of this infrastructure
until its full restoration,
-
appoint a person responsible for maintaining contacts with relevant
entities in the area of critical infrastructure protection,
-
immediately forward information on terrorist threats to critical
infrastructure to the head of the Internal Security Agency
-
cooperate in creating and
implementing the program [20, 16].
In protection plans, it
is necessary to estimate the risk of
disruption of the critical infrastructure system caused by destruction or
disruption of critical infrastructure (collecting information necessary to
identify threats, determining the consequences of disruption of critical
infrastructure and determining the sensitivity of critical infrastructure
system [20, 19].
The Critical
Infrastructure approach involves a new way on crisis management in Poland
resulting from the separation of key services that are generally delivered
using several critical infrastructure systems. The description of a key service
contained in the Act on cybersecurity stresses the importance for maintaining
critical social or economic activity, but does not define it explicitly, and
refers to the list of key services [4, art. 2 pkt
16]. The list of key service providers in the fuel and energy sector includes
electricity (generation, transmission and distribution); petroleum (refining,
production and distribution of fuels, transmission and storage); gas
(suppliers, processors, distribution, transmission, storage, LNG system
operators) [12, 19].
3. CURRENT METHODS OF ENERGY
SECURITY ASSESSMENTS
We shall look at
currently used studies and methods of energy security assessment, taking into
account the management levels. When reviewing the state of energy security, we
can distinguish:
-
strategic plans that use:
scenario analyses, modelling using energy economics tools, optimisation
techniques - used in defining development scenarios, for example, according to
economic criteria. They are used to assess future trends, hence, they must
consider forecasts;
-
indicators: applicable to the
general characteristics of the sector based on statistical data; characterising the market, for example, market
concentration indicators. They are used for rankings and summaries as they
allow for comparative assessments. They are focused on past assessments and
long-term observations that allow the identification of trends and evaluate
progress. As for the number of indicators themselves, B.W.
Ang et al stated over 200 energy security indicators
identified in the literature [1, 1084];
-
multidimensional assessments that take
into account several dimensions of energy security. Individual dimensions are
aggregated into one indicator or presented as a set, they concern technological
aspects, energy and energy efficiency, economic, political, environmental ones,
including emissivity (CO2);
-
quality indicators: related to
the quality of energy supplied, for example, SAIDI
and SAIFI indicators used by the transmission and
distribution network operators of electricity[6].
It should be recalled
here that the market regulator, that is, the Energy Regulatory Office, is
responsible for monitoring the state of the market, including recording supply
disruptions and monitoring the state of energy security. In the technical
dimension, it is necessary to emphasize the importance of functioning technical
standards and procedures, with the role of the Office of Technical Supervision
(Urząd Dozoru Technicznego) and certification and professional
qualifications systems.
4. OVERVIEW OF THREAT TYPOLOGIES
The hazardous
classifications are presented in general terms [23], [24], economic and social
[21] and militarian [13].
At the beginning of the
first decade of the twentieth century, the following classification of threats
(national security) was formulated: objective
(political, military, economic, social, ecological), the consequences of
threats (physical, psychological), sources of threats (natural, technical,
political, demographic, ideological, economic, educational, psychological,
cultural and other), environment (natural, social, political, economic,
scientific and technical), the range of threats (global, continental, regional,
local), the scale of threat (global, international, state, administrative
unit), places of threats (internal, external), dynamics of development
(dynamic, creeping), character of social relations (conflictual, non-conflict)
[8]. Other author’s points to the criteria of threats:
existence (real and potential), weights
(ordinary and extraordinary), perceptions (subjective and objective, current
and anticipated), origins (primary, secondary, natural and anthropogenic), type
(domain) of security (military, political, social, cultural, health, financial,
economic, climate, environmental protection, demographic, IT, structural, food
and cyberspace), size of useful potentials and armed means (symmetrical and
asymmetrical), scale of influence (on human, social influences, nations,
states, international organizations, civilizations), coverage (local, regional,
subregional, global), offences (military,
non-military, hybrid, war), power relations in international relations
(coalition, anti-salvation), changes in the structure of international
relations (destabilisation, volatility, surprise,
turbulence and unpredictability), the significance of the destabilising
factor (the position of the state towards another country, the decline in the
potential of states, new domains of dominance, scientific progress and
knowledge, and innovation) [24, 180–181].
B. Johansson emphasized
that the energy system can be both exposed to risks (lists security of supply
and demand) and can pose risks [gives three categories of risk: 1) economic and
political; 2) technological; 3) environmental)] [9, 200]. In the context of crisis management, due to the source
of threats, one finds the following systematics of threats: of a natural
characteristic, of a technical nature (accidents, technical failure,
contamination, degradation, fires, disruptions, failures), socio-economic (globalisation, crime, riots), political, financial,
deficit, military.
In the literature on crisis
management, contemporary threats include:
-
natural hazards - including hazards caused by factors and forces and
natural phenomena [6, 83],
-
technical hazards - related to human activity, scientific and technical
progress and the degree of civilization advancement of society [6, 90],
-
socio-economic threats - covering such social and economic phenomena
which in the existing situation of the country disturb the social order, that
is, the principles of harmonious organisation and
functioning of collective life [21, 23-29], concern the issues of production,
exchange and the type of various goods in the country and their rational
management,
-
military threats - understood as
a specific system of political and military events, as a result of which the
conditions for a stable state and development of the state may deteriorate,
violate its sovereignty and territorial territoriality as a result of the
opponent's military actions [13, 616].
In addition to the
listed threats, which are known, new ones are emerging. For example, external
threats, which are difficult to define, Pawłowski
J. describes them as follows: Nowadays we
are witnessing a rapid, accelerated information potential. Modern means of
reconnaissance, communication, combats, automated and computerised
command systems, etc. cause revolutions in the art of war; they change the
battlefield (...) it means a departure from the theory of mass, direct,
destructive fights and operations of compact army groups, more sophisticated
conceptual and flexibly carried out indirect (asymmetrical) and manoeuvring actions using information operations. In
combination with political and military pressure, actions in cyberspace,
violations of international law and norms, blackmail and economic and economic
sanctions, destabilisation of the internal
constitutional order, including the arousing of ethnic and nationalistic
nationalisms and radicalisms, as well as secret military support and
diversionary activities -sabotage - these elements make up the concept of the
so-called a hybrid war or a fourth-generation armed struggle [17,
23–24].
On the other hand,
threats related to climate change, without entering into the essence of the
discussion as to the anthropogenic nature of these changes, are so recognised that many countries, including Poland, have
developed strategies for adopting and are adapting to climate change, for
example [3], [15], [16], [29].
The typology of threats
to national security presented below [8, app.5], defines the classification criteria and assigns to them
types of threats. Sample criteria:
-
subjects (political, military, economic, social, ecological),
-
the consequences of threats (physical, psychological),
-
range of threats (global, continental, regional, local),
-
dynamics of development
(dynamic, creeping).
5. A CYCLICAL
MODEL OF ENERGY SECURITY MANAGEMENT PROCESSES
Taking into account the
achievements of management and security sciences (crisis management, risk
assessment), which can be an inspiration for the fuel and energy sector, it can
be seen that, firstly, risk assessment methods are available and are practised in other sectors (banking, crisis management) and
have been checked and standardized (ISO standards). Secondly, there is a crisis
management system in Poland that is civil (public crisis management) and uses
analytical and planning methods. Thirdly, there is a coherent national system
of critical infrastructure protection in Poland, and its operators have planned
responsibilities, taking into account the interdependence of generic systems,
the importance of which is reflected in the identified key services. Therefore,
it is reasonable to consider attempting to utilise
crisis management methods in managing energy security.
In order to describe the
approach to managing energy security in the convention of crisis management and
risk management, one can assume the following assumptions:
-
for strategic and operational planning, consistent but different goals
are defined,
-
the approach should be futuristic, that is, based on experience and
knowledge about the past, for the assessed condition - indicate the actions to
be taken,
-
should be a cycle[7], which illustrates the
process approach to management.
The proposed approach -
a cyclical model of energy security management processes (Figure 1), is characterised by the following features:
-
a dynamic approach that results from reacting to a changing state of
energy security and constructive - it is not enough to assess the state of
security, the diagnosis should be an integral part of the management processes
and the starting point for planning activities,
-
differentiation of planning
levels,
-
recognises safety management as a
cycle of hazard identification processes, risk assessment, action planning
(including security), monitoring and systematic reviews.
As part of the cycle,
coupled response cycles are implemented, it is implemented using plans, as a
result of the signal from the monitoring processes.
In a model cycle of
energy security management (Fig. 1), the crisis management convention was used,
consisting of the sequence: hazard analysis, risk assessment, planning,
response, risk monitoring, systematic review; in which strategic and
operational response was distinguished.
Fig. 1. A model cycle of
energy security management in the convention of dealing with risk
Strategic response is
carried out in the cycle: risk -> response -> planning.
For operational
response, in the crisis management mode, the following cycle is performed:
monitoring -> operational response -> planning.
National institutions
and organisations involved in the cyclical model of
energy security management processes (Fig. 1) are presented in Tab. 2.
Tab.
2
Examples of strategic and operational level institutions and organisations in the cycle of energy security management
processes
|
Process |
Strategic level |
Operational level |
|
Identification of threats |
National Security Bureau Government Centre for Security |
Enterprise risk management department |
|
Risk assessment |
Crisis Management Teams, Government Centre for Security |
Voivodeships, poviat
crisis management centres, industry associations |
|
Planning |
National Critical Infrastructure Protection Program Material reserves agency, Governmental Department of Strategic
Analysis |
Boards of companies from the fuel and energy sector |
|
Monitoring |
National Security Bureau |
Energy Regulatory
Office |
|
Systematic review |
Government Centre for Security, national administration, Minister of
Energy |
Risk management department, Maintenance services |
|
Response |
Government Centre for Security, Government Crisis Management Team |
Institutions of the National Fire and Rescue System, Crisis management
centres |
Threats: for example in
the form of directories. One can successfully use existing standard catalogues,
as well as analytical work, for example, the National Critical Infrastructure
Protection Program, National Crisis Management Plan, Safety Status Report.
Risk: The assessment is
related to the identified threats, and many normative documents are used, as
well as methods and approaches, for example [10], [11], [22].
Planning: At the
strategic level, it will be the country's policy (PEP 2030, PEP 2040), for
enterprises – the strategies of capital groups. The operational levels
relate to the required statutory CI protection plans and rescue plans for
crisis management. The operational level refers to maintenance instructions and
detailed technical guidelines.
Monitoring: Includes
state assessments and monitoring of the situation at the national level
(uniformed services, strategic analysis offices, for example, those working on
the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, or National Security Bureau, and the
academic community). Enterprises operate independently, in particular by
monitoring the market situation. The operational level refers to the technical
efficiency of the equipment, including renovation planning.
Systematic review:
Refers to the updating of planning documents.
Strategic response: Has
the dimension of updating plans, correcting assumptions and forecasts.
Operational response:
Involves emergencies, including those requiring urgent response.
Identified risk factors
can be imposed on the standard risk matrix presented in the convention of the
urgency of action, which indicates the priorities of energy security measures
(Fig. 2).
Fig. 2. An example of
using a risk matrix to assess priorities of actions
The risks selected in
the proposed convention must be subject to the analysis of risk acceptance
criteria. In the classic approach to risk assessment for crisis management [22,
188-191], the category of activities is determined by the vulnerability. In the
area of energy security, in particular, at the stage of creating security, an
important place is the assessment of the consequences of risk materialisation and the search for an economical security
optimum.
6. SUMMARY
In the author's opinion,
the current definition of energy security, considering the supplement included
in the PEP 2040 project, is sufficiently accurate (contains references to
continuity of supply, time perspective, technical, economic and environmental
conditions), although, overall, it does not distinguish between types of fuels
and energy and does not define and therefore in no way determines the energy
mix.
Looking at energy
security from two perspectives, which the state is able to control: 1)
continuity of supply (strategic contracts) and 2) technical infrastructure
(control over operators and market regulation), it is worth adopting a point of
view of the sector functioning as technical infrastructure. We can see here the
evolution in crisis management, which involves the interdependence of critical
infrastructure systems, expressed by key services introduced by the
Cybersecurity Directive 5. In this sense, the energy system is
fundamental to other systems. Risk assessments require the extension of the
viewpoint from the object and system to interdependent systems acting as
cooperating and thus interdependent network structures.
The proposed descriptive
definition of energy security in management terms, or rather in terms of
features and actions to be taken into account includes:
-
component processes: hazard identification, risk assessment, planning,
monitoring, review and response,
-
cyclical course as a response to the changing circumstances of security
management as a cycle of hazard identification processes,
-
full scope of management – it is not enough to assess the state of
security, the diagnosis is an integral part of further processes and a
reference to the actions taken,
-
differentiation of planning levels.
The approach described
is a cyclical model of energy security management processes. The presented
directions of crisis management evolution also referred to as energy security,
indicate that basic research in the field of interdependence of critical
infrastructure systems in the perspective of security of key services delivery
is gaining importance. Research is also needed in assessing the impact of
supply disruptions, both economically (disruption of supply costs) and
non-economically (intangible losses, as a materialisation
of health threats). Such knowledge is needed to make decisions as to further
actions for the identified risk, and in the risk assessment methods, it is
determined by the risk management criteria.
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Received 18.10.2019; accepted in revised form 29.12.2019
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