Article citation information:
Kozuba, J., Krawczyk, J., Korytek, Ł. The impact of air traffic increases on the safety of air operations in the Polish airspace. Scientific Journal of Silesian University of Technology. Series Transport. 2018, 98, 53-63. ISSN: 0209-3324. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20858/sjsutst.2018.98.6.
Jarosław KOZUBA[1],
Jacek KRAWCZYK[2],
Łukasz KORYTEK[3]
THE
IMPACT OF AIR TRAFFIC INCREASES ON THE SAFETY OF AIR OPERATIONS IN THE POLISH
AIRSPACE
Summary. Polish airspace is available to all its users on an equal basis . The state is obliged to ensure the safety of aviation operations within its air borders and to safeguard the fluidity of air traffic through the appropriate operationalization of telecommunications, navigation, signal codes and proper airport infrastructure, as well as area navigation . Increasing air traffic requires constant amelioration of airspace structures and the management of airspace and air traffic flow, in accordance with international laws and country-specific circumstances. This article discusses the changes in air traffic throughput from 1997 to 2016 and analyses air traffic and its influence on airspace safety, based on statistics from the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency (PANSA). The article also examines the increase in the number of aircraft, taking into account the delays generated in European and Polish airspace, while outlining the changes in air traffic management (ATM), as implemented by the PANSA.
Keywords: Polish airspace, airspace security, increased effectiveness of airspace use, flight operations, vertical and horizontal airspace division
1. INTRODUCTION
The reasons for the increase in air
traffic throughput stem from economic development and improved welfare in
contemporary society. We are witnessing
new airline connections at a Polish, European and worldwide level. New airports
are built to provide passenger and cargo transport, equipped with appropriate
airport infrastructure, while air, road, railway and water connections have
been forged with other agglomerations, airports and other shipment sites. They
also offer the possibility to service aircraft, as well as provide hangars,
warehouses, shipment facilities and qualified personnel.
Road transport is associated with
the necessity to provide road infrastructure. In recent years, we have observed
various limitations imposed upon road vehicles as a result of environmental
protection, cargo load mass or driver workload limitations. Heavy-duty vehicles
or cars with traditional fuel combustion systems are increasingly and
frequently being denied entry into agglomerations. This is accompanied by a
shortage of appropriate and low-cost parking spaces within major cities, which
is an additional challenge for shipment companies that use road transport. At
present, electric cars are gaining popularity, yet due to their technological
complexity and a limited number of charging stations, vehicle prices and legal
solutions, they cannot be considered as a means of road transport for the
transport of goods or people over long distances.
Railway transport is becoming more
popular, owing to quick connections and improvements in the quality of railway
infrastructure. We are also witnessing rapid technological progress in railway
transportation. Trains are becoming faster, and the comfort of travelling is
constantly increasing. Since railway transport is more advantageous and safer
in comparison with road transport, new railway connections are planned for
routes of 300 km or longer, which will be connected with various types of
transport, and with airports in particular.
One drawback of the railway system
is that it fails to reach a significant number of towns with over 10,000
inhabitants. In comparison with other European countries, such as the Czech
Republic or Slovakia, Poland is in a disadvantageous position.
Heavy cargoes or large-capacity
goods are transported via sea or inland water routes, as the transport of a
significant quantity of heavy goods over long distances is cheaper than for
other means of transport. An advantage of water transport is that it caters for
the majority of cargo types, and is competitive in terms of transport costs per
unit and attractive in terms of the worldwide scope of shipment routes.
At present, in Poland, sea and
inland water transport is insufficiently developed, with Szczecin, Świnoujście,
Gdańsk and Gdynia as the only cities that are significant for the national
economy.
Despite being relatively
inexpensive, sea transport faces constraints due to a limited number of and access
to port facilities. Therefore, the majority of shipment companies provide mass
cargo freight services on an international scale.
It is estimated that, in the near
future, new ameliorations will be implemented in air freight, including an
additional number of airports and new technological on-board solutions for
aircraft and air traffic control (ATC) systems, which will contribute to a
reduction in time loss and fuel consumption. This, in turn, will have a
positive impact on environmental protection and the emission of greenhouse
gases. Additionally, the use of low-emission fuels is envisaged. Eurocontrol is
striving to improve security levels and increase the air traffic throughput.
An incentive to encourage air
transportation will be changes in aircraft interiors through the customization
of zones, the adjustment of the seat shape to passengers’ body shape, and
additional relaxation zones for passengers. Taking into account the fact that
air transport allows for the freight of both small- and large-sized goods on
short and long distances to destinations that are difficult to reach using road
transport and often inaccessible to water or railway transport, it has become
the most attractive solution.
Additionally, it is the fastest and safest means of transport. That is
why it has the most challenges to face. They can be responded to through the
systematic development of ATM systems, airport infrastructure and means of air
transport, and through the full integration of air transport with other types
of transport, as well as transport and logistics infrastructure, both in major
agglomerations and in small non-urbanized areas.
2. THE INCREASE IN AIR
TRAFFIC THROUGHPUT AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
In recent years, we have observed a
systematic and dynamic increase in air traffic throughput, both in European and
Polish airspace. This means that it is necessary to continue the process of
developing effective solutions in air traffic organization and management
systems at a global, European and Polish airspace level, which will ensure the
appropriate security standards of air transport, as well as the evenly
distributed and timely throughput of air traffic.
Fig. 1. Projected number of aviation
operations
Source: Eurocontrol
In recent years, a systematic and
dynamic increase in aviation operations in European airspace has been observed.
In 1997, there were seven million flight operations. In 2000, there were
approximately eight million flight operations, whereas, in 2010, there were
approximately 11.9 million flight operations. It is envisaged that, in 2020,
there will be approximately 16 million flight operations (Figure 1), which
would appear to be a profound challenge for European regional and national ATM
systems.
Flight operations are performed in
airspaces that are optimal from the point of view of air carriers, whose aim is
to fly along the shortest air route, with the best climb and descent procedure.
The carriers’ objectives should be optimally accomplished by air traffic
services that help to prevent the so-called bottlenecks, which result in delays
in air transport.
Fig. 2. Number of operations (in
thousands) – second quarter
Source: ULC, “Civil Aviation
Authority analysis of the air traffic market in the second quarter of 2017”
The above figures point to a gradual
increase in air traffic throughput. It is anticipated that this increase will
continue due to improving social welfare, the demand for these types of
services, the competitiveness offered by air transport in comparison with other
means of transport, as well as the capacity of air transport to meet needs on a
regional, continental and worldwide scale. In turn, transport services are
becoming cheaper and easily available. Unlike in the case of road transport,
air transport carriers do not have to think about the rental of parking spaces
and associated costs. Additionally, airport infrastructure is being developed,
and ticket prices are considerably diversified, in accordance with seat
availability, the booking date, the season, and the departure and arrival
locations; nevertheless, prices are becoming cheaper.
The dynamics of air traffic
development is increasing on a yearly basis. A case in point could be third
quarter of 2016, when traffic was more than twofold in comparison with
STATFOR’s[4]
high forecast at 9.3%[5].
In the same period, an average delay was 0.95 min/flight.
I quarter
|
STATFOR Base |
STATFOR High Time delay indicator (min/flight) |
Fig. 3. The increase in air traffic
and the number of delays en route on a quarterly basis in 2016
Source: PANSA documentation on the
basis of Eurocontrol/PRU data
The actual traffic increase led to
exceeded throughput and considerable delays from July to October 2016.
In the case of high air traffic
load, the provision of services, including adequate security standards,
inevitably leads to an increased number of delays. This phenomenon occurred in
2016 throughout Europe, leading to an increase in delays in comparison with the
assumed values. Irrespective of the above, flight security and fluidity were
maintained.
Fig. 4. The number of flight operations and
the scope of delays en route in 2012-2016
Source: PANSA documentation
Despite the undertaken
organizational and operational actions, with the exception of 2015, it was not
possible to reduce the value of the average delay below 35 s/flight. This
resulted in differences between the planned and achieved value of the delay
index.
The average delay in 2016 in Poland
was 0.39 min/flight, with the expected value at the level of 0.23 min/flight.
The delays were connected with the dynamics of the traffic increase in the
Warszawa FIR, which, in 2016, was twofold with reference to the previously
assumed value (+7.5%)[6].
In the same period, the average delay in European airspace was 0.86min/flight,
with the air traffic increase at +2.4%.
The above data unambiguously
indicate that the number of flight operations can be expected to increase in
connection with the popularity of air transport and the development of airport
and municipal infrastructure. Effective cooperation between land, water and air
carriers and the appropriate agencies is essential in order to optimize
transport, adjust services to meet current needs and ensure transport security.
The most significant challenge is
faced by air transport, due to its dynamic development and huge possibilities.
It is justifiable for other transport types to adapt to its requirements. This
poses an enormous challenge for traffic management agencies, which must respond
to the problems faced by air carriers and provide air traffic security for all
airspace users.
3. CHANGES IN THE AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE INCREASED NUMBER OF FLIGHT OPERATIONS
Each country is responsible for
security within its own airspace[7]. In the times of peace, the responsibility for
the provision of air traffic services, covering airspace management, air
traffic throughput management, the provision of air traffic services,
coordination of SAR operations, aviation information services, aviation
training, meteorological information services, and air operations planning and
organization, is vested in one institution: the PANSA.
The institution was established
pursuant to the Law of 8 December 2006 on the Polish Air Navigation Services
Agency (Official Journal of Laws of 2015, Item 1641. The institution was
established in order to streamline ATM through the provision of air traffic
services in Polish airspace. It was certified and assigned in accordance with
the Act of 3 July 2002 on Aviation Law (Official Journal of Laws of 2017, Item
959 as Amended), and with EU law, by the competent minister for transport and
the provision of air traffic services in the Warsaw flight information region
(FIR).
Despite the economic crisis that
took place in 2008-2009, since 2010, aviation has experienced a continuous
increase in the number of passengers handled, flight operations performed, and
the opening of new connections. Throughout the past 12 years, passenger traffic
has increased fourfold, which is a considerable challenge for Polish airports,
as well as PANSA, which is responsible for the provision of air traffic
fluidity in the Warsaw FIR. ATM systems should be constantly developed and
upgraded so that they can respond to challenges posed by the needs of air
transport at present and over the next 10 years. The reason for determining
requirements several years in advance is that the implementation of a new
system in its operating mode, starting from the selection of the offer, through
tests to the implementation of the operating mode, takes two to three years.
Tab. 1
Projected number of passengers
served and the number of passenger operations in Poland to 2035[8]
Source: Civil Aviation Authority
documentation
Taking into account a gradual growth
in flight operations in the Warsaw FIR, it has become clear that it is
necessary to undertake actions that will result in increased throughput in the
Warsaw FIR. Furthermore, according to Polskie Porty Lotnicze, beyond
expectations, there were 12% more passengers[9]
handled in comparison with 2015.
In order to fulfil the airlines’
expectations and, thus, the reduction in delays due to a lack of sector
capacity resulting from a high traffic load, the PANSA, as the national
provider of air navigation services, introduced a vertical division of airspace
in March 2016, as a continuation of the P2010+ programme[10],
whose purpose is to meet capacity requirements, while, at the same time,
preserving the highest security standards.
A significant change in the Warsaw
FIR was the introduction of a vertical division of area control centre (ACC)
zones (Figure 6). Until February 2016, in the Warsaw ACC, it was possible to
open up to nine zones in different horizontal configurations, i.e., from FL 95
to FL660. Since March 2016, a change has been implemented, with the objective
to increase the throughput of the Warsaw FIR and adjust ATC services to meet a
gradually increasing air traffic load. Additionally, solutions aimed at the
reduction of vertical and horizontal borders for respective terminal manoeuvring areas (TMAs) have been introduced, and the tracks of air routes have been altered.
Fig. 5. A vertical division of air
traffic zones in EPWW FIR
Source: PANSA, based on AIP Polska
EP_ENR_2_2_1_en
The implementation of the vertical
division allowed for a twofold increase in air traffic zones, which resulted in
the necessity to introduce changes in their management and the volume index of
those zones. Considering an additional number of zone listings, it has become
necessary to define the aircraft capacity in zones, the number of controllers
and various scenarios for the free opening and closing of zones. Horizontal
borders for respective zones have undergone significant changes. Additionally,
vertical and horizontal borders for respective TMAs have been reduced. As a
result of these actions, the tracks of air routes have changed. Before the
introduction of the above changes, they underwent simulations in order to
ensure optimal traffic fluidity, thereby preserving air traffic safety, along
with the optimization of air traffic controllers’ work.
The assumption was not to reduce
airspace capacity, provided that the envisaged traffic increase would be 2.8%
at the base level and 4.5% at the high level (STATFOR forecast from February
2016)[11].
As a result of the dynamic growth in
flight operations in 2016 (+7.5%), in the Warsaw FIR, a traffic throughput was
higher than planned. During air traffic peak hours, there were situations in
which physical needs exceeded 180 actions/hour, with the baseline values at the
level of 150 flight operations. Traffic accumulation in the summer season
oscillated between +8% and +15%[12];
changes were sharp due to the political situation in Ukraine. Additionally,
limitations concerning airspace use were introduced due to the NATO summit, the
World Youth Day, and planned as well as ad hoc military training.
Moreover, there were additional
factors that resulted in changes concerning the traffic throughput in the
Warsaw FIR after the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine, and in particular after
the shooting down of a Malaysian Airlines aircraft. As a result of the latter
event, aircraft avoided the dangerous area in Ukrainian territory and changed
their routes, thus affecting traffic throughput in the zones of particular
FIRs, including the Warsaw FIR.
4. THE IMPACT OF AIR TRAFFIC INCREASES ON RISK
MANAGEMENT
The rising popularity of air
transport is directly connected to the number of aircraft in airspace. Air
traffic services are facing a challenge: on the one hand, they must ensure a
proper level of air traffic safety, while, on the other, they must provide a
fluid throughput of aircraft in the areas of responsibility of air traffic
services.
In order to develop a comprehensive
solution, it is necessary to implement an appropriate risk management system,
which should be common to the whole of European airspace.
All countries should actively
participate in research and development work conducted by European Aviation
Safety Agency and on the Single European Sky ATM
Research Programme, which should result in the implementation of common
regulations and procedures aimed at ensuring a high level of airspace
safety.
The increased number of flight
operations must not negatively impact safety in airspace or those spaces where
start and landing operations take place.
In order to ensure a high level of
safety, risk consequences, and their outcomes and solutions have been
identified to minimize threats to the ATM system, as presented below.
1. A small separation decrease due
to:
- Excessive ATC load
- Insufficient concentration on the
part of the aircraft crew
- Lowered efficiency of communications, navigation and surveillance*
systems (supporting ATC work)
*Communications, navigation and surveillance
are three technologies at the very heart of ATM.
This is an
unlikely event. If a such an event does occur, it should be analysed and any
appropriate changes should be introduced to the ATM system.
2. Change of the flight track of one or several aircraft to such an
extent that, in order to avoid collision with another aircraft or with the
earth, the pilot must react or start the airborne collision avoidance system in
response to:
- A
considerable reduction in aircraft separation
- Insufficient control of the situation and no possibility to restore
minimum separation on the part of the aircraft crew and the ATC
This is an
unlikely event. If such an event does occur, it should be analysed and any
appropriate significant changes should be introduced to the ATM system.
3. There is no possibility to avoid
collision because:
- No ACT
procedure can prevent it
- The crew cannot prevent the accident, as there is a total loss of
steering control over the aircraft
There is a
minimal likelihood that the above may occur. If that is the case, a new ATM
system should be implemented.
It should be assumed that the
increased number of aircraft will result in the heightened likelihood of
adverse actions in airspace and at sites where flight operations take place.
This is why it is necessary to analyse current and potential threats, introduce
systematic preventative actions, as well as undertake the analysis and control
of adopted solutions in the area of ATM.
It is necessary to use a common
hazard coefficient, a common description of activities related to threats and a
proper assessment of the results of adverse events, and thus introduce unified
procedures in Europe and worldwide, respecting country-specific circumstances.
No potential threats resulting from
systemic solutions can be tolerated, and corrective measures must be introduced
as soon as possible with due diligence. Moreover, a ‘lessons learned’ process
must be implemented to allow for reaching appropriate conclusions on the basis
of experience, alongside proper corrective measures in the form of legal acts,
principles or technical solutions in order to prevent adverse events in the
future.
5. CONCLUSIONS
As a consequence of the increase in
air traffic throughput in recent years, it has become necessary to implement
new solutions concerning a new system of air traffic organization and
management in airspace at a global, European and Polish level. These solutions
should result in providing appropriate safety standards for air traffic and
ensuring evenly distributed and timely air traffic throughput.
The reason for the increase of air
traffic throughput is that the air transport can provide rapid cargo shipments
and the transport of people over long and short distances. Air carriers
cooperate with air traffic agencies and institutions providing logistics
infrastructure, which guarantees that destinations are reached in a fast and
comfortable way. Additionally, the number of air connections is increasing,
while new connections are being established, reflecting the demands of an
increasingly prosperous society, which considers flying as the most effective
means of transport.
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Received 14.11.2017; accepted in revised form 15.02.2018
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